What the numbers say: Louisville's chances at reaching the College Football Playoff
Louisville has found itself on the outside looking in since the College Football Playoffs’ inaugural season eleven years ago. With Jeff Brohm at the helm for his third year in the Cardinal program, he is looking to get his top-20 team into the record books.
The Cards are currently No. 16 in the AP poll after beating Boston College 38-24. Louisville will need to wait another week for the first College Football Playoffs rankings release, scheduled for November 4. Until then, Louisville will travel to Virginia Tech and look to settle business if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive.
What the numbers say
With plenty of time for chaos to ensue, betting services are giving Louisville a fighting chance to be one of the final 12 teams standing.
ESPN has Louisville favored in four out of its remaining five games. Louisville has been given a 73.6 percent chance of going on the road and taking down a struggling Virginia Tech program on November 1. The Hokies recently fired head coach Brent Fry and are led by dual-threat QB Kyron Drones.
Louisville will then host California, giving them a 90.5 percent chance of winning and improving to 8-1. The Golden Bears started the season strong but have recently lost three of their last five games, including a double overtime loss to VT, where the Hokies ran for over 300 yards.
Clemson will then visit the Cards for a Friday night showdown on November 14th. ESPN gives Louisville a 60.5 percent chance of winning for the second straight year.
The last game of the regular season will be for the Governors Cup as Louisville has a 71.6 percent chance of taking down in-state rival Kentucky.
The only game the Cards aren’t projected to win is when they travel to Southern Methodist University seeking revenge after a heartbreaking 34-27 loss last year.
ESPN has also given Louisville the 4th best odds to win the ACC at +500.
PlayoffStatus is another media outlet giving the Cards a good chance of reaching the playoffs. According to their projections, Louisville currently has a 28% chance of making the college football playoffs, good for 4th-best odds in the ACC. If the Cards can win their remaining five games of the season, their chances of making it rise to 89 percent. That number drops significantly to 25 percent if the Cards endure one more loss.
FanDuel has Louisville at +240 odds to make the playoffs. Positioning them just above South Florida at +350, BYU at +285, and tied with Tulane at +240. Even with Virginia beating the Cards and being ranked ahead of them in the AP poll, they currently have +790 odds to be one of the 12 teams selected.
History predicts a wild finish
There is no way to predict what might exactly happen during these final weeks of the season, but history has shown that anything is possible. At this time last year, the AP top-12 looked extremely different from how the season finished. Teams projected to make the playoffs slipped while underdogs made things interesting.
SMU was ranked No. 20 coming into week 11, but ended up jumping to the 11-seed. Indiana was ranked just outside of the top 12 at No. 13 and made a strong push to become the 10-seed. Arizona State wasn’t even ranked and went on a miraculous run to secure a first-round bye as the 4-seed.
Miami was seen as a real title contender, ranked as the No. 5 team in the country, but losing two out of their remaining four games kicked them out of the playoff race. BYU is another team that sat inside the top-10 this time last year, but lost two games late in the season to ruin all of their playoff hopes. Texas A&M had positioned itself in a great spot, sitting at 7-1, but a devastating end of the year made them miss the playoffs and finish 8-5.
Louisville controls its own destiny if it wants to change the narrative of its playoff drought. Data and analytics may offer a glimpse into what Louisville’s future might hold, but history has shown that anything can happen.
