Friday forecast: Five things to watch as No. 11 Illini travel to Duke
Orange and Blue News breaks down five thing to watch for Illinois versus Duke. Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. Central Time and will be broadcast nationally on ESPN. Both teams enter the game with 1–0 records, having each dominated their season openers. Illinois is a 3-point favorite according to BetMGM.
MORE: Illinois at Duke preview and picks | Behind enemy lines | Illinois the right place at the right time for defensive lineman Tomiwa Durojaiye | Duke quarterback Darian Mensah first big challenge for Illini defense
Time to shine for Illinois edge rushers
Keeping Duke quarterback Darian Mensah off balance and disrupting the Blue Devils’ passing attack is one of our keys to the game, and probably the biggest key. One matchup to watch comes at tackle, where Duke’s Brian Parker II will be tested by Illinois edge rushers, particularly Gabe Jacas. Parker, who earned preseason All-ACC honors and landed on the Outland Trophy watch list, anchors the Blue Devils’ offensive line and will be tasked with slowing down Jacas, one of the Big Ten’s most disruptive pass rushers.
Jacas brings a combination of speed and power off the edge, and if he can consistently win his battles against Parker, it could collapse the pocket and disrupt Duke’s passing rhythm. For Duke, keeping Parker steady in one-on-one protection is critical, but they may also need to slide help his way with a tight end or back to limit Jacas’s impact. The Illini also have other capable rushers coming off the edge in Alec Bryant, Joe Barna, and Daniel Brown. If Duke doubles Jacas as expected, there are other options.
Tight ends enhance Illini ground game
Illinois leaned on its tight ends in the opener, and that could carry over into Saturday’s matchup at Duke. Tanner Arkin posted an impressive 81.5 run-blocking grade from PFF against Western Illinois, and the Illini often lined up in 12- and even 13-personnel sets to give the run game some extra muscle. That kind of heavy look not only creates more space for backs like Aidan Laughery, Kaden Feagin, and Ca’il Valentine, but it also forces defenses to commit more bodies near the line of scrimmage.
Illinois found more success on outside zone plays than on gap runs in the opener, and that approach should continue this weekend against the Blue Devils. Duke’s front held Elon to just 87 rushing yards in its opener, showing discipline against zone runs and not giving up many chunk plays. Still, the Blue Devils haven’t seen the size and physicality Illinois brings up front. If Arkin and the tight end group can seal the edges again, the Illini ground game has a real chance to get rolling in Durham.
The Illini staff also loves the blocking ability of transfers Devin Stoffel and Christian Abney. H-back Jordan Anderson is a strong lead blocker. It is (very) likely that Illinois held some things back against WIU. We should see it roll out the entire playbook at Saturday.
The Darian Mensah show
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the last thing Illinois wants to happen is for Mensah to get Heisman buzz. It’s been almost a full year since Mensah last faced a Power Four opponent, when he struggled against Oklahoma on Sept. 14, 2024. That day, he went 14-for-32 for 166 yards with just a 48.2 percent completion rate and a 23.7 efficiency rating. Illinois would love to see a similar stat line on Saturday, and the formula isn’t complicated: pressure and tight coverage.
The Illini need their front to collapse the pocket and make Mensah uncomfortable, forcing rushed throws or keeping him from setting his feet. When gets flushed, make him pay. On the back end, corners Torie Cox Jr. and Kaleb Patterson must hold up on the outside, with help from safeties to limit explosive plays. Though Mensah doesn’t throw the ball up for grabs often, Illinois could still steal a takeaway or two if they frustrate him into forcing throws late in the down.
Communication is key
Though Illinois’ offensive line had a good day overall, there were a few shaky moments in the opener against Western Illinois, especially early in the ground game. But by the second half, the Illini leaned on their size and strength to wear down the Leathernecks and rip off some explosive runs. Offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. said the miscues weren’t about getting overpowered physically—they came down to communication up front. That’s the kind of detail that can make the difference between a stalled drive and a big play, and it takes on even greater importance this week.
Now comes Duke and Manny Diaz’s defense, which is built on disguises, multiple fronts, and plenty of presnap movement to create confusion. That puts a heavy load on center Josh Kreutz, the captain of the line and the player responsible for making sure everyone’s on the same page. Kreutz will have to set protections quickly and clearly, giving his linemates confidence against a defense designed to create hesitation. If Illinois can clean up the communication and keep Duke’s shifting looks from causing chaos, the run game and pass protection both have a much better chance to hold up in Durham.
Who steps up at crunch time?
Illinois made a habit of grinding out nail-biters in 2024, and Saturday’s matchup at Duke looks like it could follow the same script. The Illini are a slim 3-point favorite, and most expect this one to stay tight into the fourth quarter. Last season, Illinois leaned on clutch playmakers like Pat Bryant to swing momentum late. With Bryant now in the NFL, the question becomes who fills that role. Maybe it’s one of the running backs finding an extra gear, or a receiver stepping up in crunch time. Either way, Illinois knows it has to finish strong to survive on the road.
Special teams could also tip the balance. Kicker David Olano gives Illinois a reliable option in close games, and Hank Beatty has already shown he can change a game with his return ability after taking one to the house against Western Illinois. In a matchup where every possession will matter, the Illini will need a few of those difference-making plays to keep their knack for winning close ones alive.
