UCF vs. Baylor Football Preview with Grayson Grundhoefer of SicEm365
UCF returns to the field after a much-needed bye week, looking to build on the momentum of a dominant 45-13 win over West Virginia. Next up: a road trip to Waco, Texas, to face a Baylor team mired in inconsistency and surrounded by growing uncertainty surrounding head coach Dave Aranda.
For insight into the Bears, UCFSports.com caught up with Grayson Grundhoefer of SicEm365, who provided an insider’s take on the state of the program and what to expect in Saturday’s noon kickoff on ESPNU.
Baylor enters their homecoming week at 4–4 overall (2–3 Big 12) after consecutive road losses at TCU and No. 21 Cincinnati.
Aranda finds himself squarely on the hot seat. Though he led the Bears to a Big 12 title and Sugar Bowl win in 2021, the seasons since have been turbulent: 6–7 in 2022, 3–9 in 2023, and now a middling 2025 campaign that’s trending downward despite a talented offense and a veteran quarterback.
“Every game is a must-win for Dave Aranda at this point,” Grundhoefer said. “They’ve lost two in a row and the fan base has kind of checked out. If things go bad early, you’ll hear the boos in Waco.”
Unmet expectations after 2024’s late surge
Last season, Baylor appeared to rediscover its footing under Aranda, winning its final six regular season games before losing the bowl game to finish 8–5. That late surge raised optimism for 2025, especially with quarterback Sawyer Robertson back after throwing for 3,071 yards and 28 touchdowns in his first year as a starter. The Bears returned much of that offensive core and added depth through the transfer portal.
But the results haven’t matched the expectations.
“They really were expected to contend,” Grundhoefer said. “They retained a lot of key pieces. Everyone thought they’d have one of the top offenses in the Big 12, maybe even the best. But defensively, they’ve been awful. They’ve regressed across the board.”
Statistically, the offense has done its part — No. 6 in the Big 12 in scoring offense (34.3 ppg) and No. 1 in passing (318.4 ypg), but the defense has undermined any consistency. Baylor ranks near the bottom of the conference in scoring defense (32.6 ppg) red-zone defense and rushing yards allowed (190.5 ypg).
“They’ve been terrible on defense,” Grundhoefer added. “They completely whiffed in the transfer portal, had some key injuries, and just haven’t developed guys well enough. They literally haven’t won the turnover battle once this year outside of the Samford game. You’re not winning Big 12 games like that.”
Defensive struggles define 2025
Aranda’s defensive pedigree — he coordinated elite units at Wisconsin and LSU — makes Baylor’s decline on that side of the ball especially baffling. The Bears have allowed 32.6 points and 403 yards per game, and their inability to force turnovers (just five interceptions in eight games) has proven costly.
“They’ve had a lot of injuries and missed evaluations in the portal,” Grundhoefer explained. “Their defensive line has struggled to get push, and when you let offensive linemen reach the second level, that kills your linebackers.”
Linebacker Keaton Thomas (who is from Jacksonville) remains a bright spot. The preseason All-American leads the team with 75 tackles, but Grundhoefer noted that his production is limited by poor play around him. Cornerback LeVar Thornton Jr., a 6-foot-3 cornerback with long arms, has held his own against elite receivers such as Auburn’s Cam Coleman and Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson, while the opposite corner has been repeatedly targeted.
“Thomas is a great player, but he’s asked to do too much,” Grundhoefer said. “And Thornton has really emerged, he’s one of their few consistent guys in coverage.”
Baylor’s defensive philosophy, a conservative two-safety shell designed to prevent big plays, has backfired.
“They drop back and make you drive the field,” he said. “They’re not giving up bombs, but they’re letting teams string together first downs. And in the red zone, it’s been a disaster. Against Cincinnati and TCU, those teams were 8-for-8 scoring touchdowns inside the red zone.”
Offense led by record-setting quarterback
If not for the nation’s leader in passing yards, Baylor’s record could be much worse. Sawyer Robertson, a 6-foot-4 redshirt senior transfer from Mississippi State, has been prolific, completing 201 of 326 passes (61.7%) for 2,513 yards and 23 touchdowns, ranking second nationally in TDs and passing yards per game.
“He’s really, really good,” Grundhoefer said. “He’s the kind of quarterback you can build around, but the defense and run game have let him down lately.”
The running game has been inconsistent due to injuries to star tailback Bryson Washington, who has 603 rushing yards and six touchdowns despite leaving multiple games early. Freshmen Michael Turner (279 yards) and Caden Knighten (221) have filled in, but the offense has grown one-dimensional.
“Bryson Washington is one of the best backs in the country when healthy,” Grundhoefer said. “But he’s been knocked out of three straight games after halftime. When he’s not out there, they struggle to stay balanced.”
Offensive line instability has compounded the issue. This week, Baylor announced offensive line coach Mason Miller is no longer with the program, a surprising development that Aranda called a “personal matter.” Grundhoefer said the timing could disrupt continuity.
“It’s a weird situation,” he noted. “I wouldn’t be surprised if UCF blitzes a little more to test that group.”
Playmakers around Robertson
Despite the offensive imbalance, Baylor has no shortage of weapons. Tight end Michael Trigg, a Tampa native and former USC and Ole Miss transfer, leads all FBS tight ends in receiving yards (525) and is tied for third in TDs (five).
“Trigg is a monster,” Grundhoefer said. “He’ll make a one-handed catch that wins you a game, then drop an easy one the next drive. But when he’s locked in, he’s almost unstoppable. He’s about to break every tight end record in Baylor history.”
Wide receiver Josh Cameron (44 catches, 576 yards, 4 TDs) has been equally vital, serving as both a steady chain-mover and special teams threat. Slot receiver Ashtyn Hawkins (426 yards) remains reliable, while Kobe Prentice has six touchdown grabs on just 21 receptions, ranking among the league’s most efficient scorers.
“Cameron is tough, he’ll win those 50-50 balls and draw flags,” Grundhoefer said. “And Prentice is sneaky. Every time he touches it, it seems like it’s for six.”
Fan fatigue and Coaching Carousel talk
As the Bears’ bowl hopes teeter, the conversation in Waco has shifted away from the season and toward Aranda’s job security. Grundhoefer said SicEm365’s message boards are dominated not by talk of UCF, but by speculation over possible coaching replacements.
“I don’t think anyone is even talking about this game,” he said. “It’s all about who could be next.”
He rattled off a list of names being floated by fans and insiders alike: Jon Sumrall (Tulane), Alex Golesh (South Florida), Eric Morris (North Texas), and familiar Texas names such as Jeff Traylor (UTSA) and GJ Kinne (Texas State). Grundhoefer thinks if a change does occur, a sitting head coach is more likely, but current offensive coordinators like Collin Klein (Texas A&M) and Will Stein (Oregon) could be considered.
“If Baylor moves on, they’ll probably target an established head coach from the G5 ranks,” Grundhoefer said. “Someone with offensive vision and proven player development chops. They can’t afford another rebuild that drags on.”
Expectations for Saturday: Who shows up?
Asked for his game prediction, Grundhoefer admitted uncertainty. The betting line opened with Baylor as a slight favorite (around -3.5), but he expects money to move toward UCF.
“I don’t know what Baylor team will show up,” he said. “If Sawyer Robertson and the offense get going, they can score. But UCF’s defense is legit. I think UCF’s run game will control it, and if it’s a blowout, I actually think it’s more likely to be in UCF’s favor.”
Grundhoefer praised Scott Frost’s work in quickly reshaping the Knights into a physical, balanced team.
“They’re fighting for something,” he said. “They’re physical up front, the defense is fast, and the players have bought in. That’s not the case here right now.
“But again, I kind of sit on the side of I’m going to go with the team that is kind of fighting for a little bit more and the team that’s kind of trying to build something, vs. the team that kind of just feels like they’re sleepwalking at this point.”
Homecoming and Waco travel tips
Saturday marks Baylor’s 116th Homecoming, an event that originated in 1909 and is considered the nation’s oldest collegiate homecoming tradition. But Grundhoefer doesn’t expect McLane Stadium to be full.
“You’ll see the pictures on social media five minutes before kickoff,” he joked. “It’ll be sparse. It’s 11 a.m., fans are down on the team, but the weather will be great. The ones there will cheer, but if things go south, you’ll hear boos.”
He also offered visiting Knights fans a few local recommendations: George’s Restaurant for chicken-fried steak, Jasper’s for BBQ fare, and Cupp’s Drive-In for a classic burger. For sightseeing, he suggested the Magnolia Market (home of Chip and Joanna Gaines’ empire), the Dr Pepper Museum, and Balcones Distillery for craft bourbon tastings.
Final Outlook
For UCF, Saturday represents an opportunity to continue its midseason turnaround and reach 5–3 with a second straight Big 12 win. For Baylor, it may be a tipping point for the Aranda era.
“It’s been three years now of asking, ‘What game will cost Aranda his job?’” Grundhoefer said. “This could be the one, unless they show a spark we haven’t seen in a month.”
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