UCF vs. Houston Football Preview with GoCoogs.com
As UCF prepares to host Houston under the lights Friday night for the ninth edition of its popular Space Game, the Cougars arrive as one of the Big 12’s biggest surprises, but also one of its biggest question marks.
Coming off a 45-35 home loss to West Virginia that knocked them out of the Top 25, Houston is 7-2 overall, 4-2 in the Big 12, and looking to get back on track against a Knights team desperate to keep bowl hopes alive.
To learn more about UH, I caught up with GoCoogs.com founder Ryan Monceaux, a veteran Houston insider who has covered the program for more than 25 years. Here’s a full breakdown of our conversation:
UCF-Houston series and joining the Big 12
There’s been a long, if somewhat sporadic, history between UCF and Houston. Though the two schools have shared conference affiliation since 2005 (Conference USA, the American, and now the Big 12), they’ve only played three times since 2017, all of which were UCF wins. The Knights own an 8-3 lead in the all-time series.
Monceaux said the excitement surrounding Houston’s Big 12 invitation in 2021 was immense, especially after decades of being left behind since the Southwest Conference days. However, that enthusiasm quickly turned sour during a rocky 2023 debut under former coach Dana Holgerson.
UH turned to Tulane coach Willie Fritz to start the rebuild, but the turnaround didn’t come quickly.
“Last year was really bad,” Monceaux said. “It was the worst offense I’ve ever seen from a U of H team. Willie Fritz is a program builder, and this year, this team is about what I expected, though they’ve won a lot of games on the margins.”
Winning on the margins and the turnover formula
Houston’s 7-2 record may surprise some, but Monceaux believes it’s been fueled largely by success in close games and turnover battles. The Cougars have won the turnover margin in seven of nine games, and won all seven of those.
“That’s how Willie Fritz wants to play,” Monceaux explained. “Complementary football. Win the turnover battle. Win special teams. Run the ball. If they do those things, they’ve got a shot.”
Several of Houston’s wins have been narrow ones: Oregon State in overtime (27-24), Arizona on a walk-off field goal (31-28) and a gritty road win at then-No. 24 Arizona State (24-16) that earned Fritz the Bear Bryant Coach of the Week honor.
Fans still not fully bought in on Fritz?
Despite the success, Monceaux says much of the Houston fanbase remains tepid on Fritz.
“There’s no pizzazz with Willie. He’s not a self-promoter,” Monceaux said. “Tom Herman was great at that. Dana had a name. But Willie just wants to coach football. And in a big city like Houston, that’s tough.”
That low profile, combined with 100+ new players across two years of heavy portal activity, has made it harder for fans to form connections with the roster.
Add in poor home game scheduling, two weekday games and two 11 a.m. kickoffs, and Monceaux said it’s been tough to build excitement.
“They haven’t built them into events. It’s been slow.”
Roster Rebuild: Conner Weigman leads a portal-powered offense
Houston’s offense is led by Texas A&M transfer QB Conner Weigman, a former five-star recruit, who Monceaux called the “emotional center” of the team. Despite concerns about durability, Weigman has played through injury and had a strong season, throwing for 1,890 yards, 16 TDs and just 4 INTs while adding 327 rushing yards and a team-best 9 rushing touchdowns.
His top weapons include:
TE Tanner Koziol – A 6-7 Ball State/Wisconsin transfer who leads all FBS tight ends with 48 catches for 504 yards and 5 TDs.
WR Amare Thomas – A UAB transfer with 40 catches for 634 yards (15.9 avg) and 7 touchdowns.
RB Dean Connors – The Rice transfer leads Houston in rushing (657 yards, 4.4 YPC) and also has 21 receptions.
“He’s dating Miss Nevada,” Monceaux said of Connors. “He’s a Swiss army knife. Runs hard, catches passes, blocks. He even juggles.”
Defensive identity and key contributors
Defensively, Houston’s philosophy has been to “keep everything in front.” While that worked early, Monceaux noted some regression recently, particularly in the West Virginia loss when Houston gave up 45 points to a freshman QB (though one of those WVU TDs came on a pick-six).
Still, several defensive standouts include:
LB Jalen Garner – A five-year veteran finally getting his opportunity. Leads UH with 58 tackles.
DL Carlos Allen Jr. and Khalil Laufau – Both rank in the top 10 nationally among interior defenders in run defense grades, per PFF.
DL Eddie Walls III – Had 3 sacks vs. Arizona State, tying the Houston Big 12 record.
CB Latrell McCutchin Sr. – Tied for the team lead in pass breakups.
Special teams are a strength too: Kicker Ethan Sanchez has made 16 of 19 field goals.
Keys to the Game and the Space Game factor
Monceaux admitted UCF’s 8-0 all-time Space Game record looms large.
“U of H fans are kind of pissed off about the Space Game thing,” he joked, noting Dana Holgerson once made public remarks about Houston’s own NASA ties.
That said, the Cougars are 4-0 on the road this season, the only Big 12 team other than BYU to boast that mark.
Monceaux said the key for Houston is emotional maturity: bouncing back from a bad performance and not letting it spiral like teams of recent years. He’s not bullish on being the betting favorite.
“That’s trapped in the moment because of a 30-3 loss by UCF. I don’t know if I buy that,” Monceaux said.
But he expects a close game into the fourth quarter, and like many Houston wins this season, it may come down to who makes the most of the few opportunities that arise.
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