UCF vs. West Virginia Football Preview with Keenan Cummings of WVSports.com
When UCF welcomes West Virginia to the Bounce House on Saturday, it’ll be a matchup of two Big 12 teams rebuilding under familiar names, Scott Frost and Rich Rodriguez, each back for a second stint with the program.
I caught up with Keenan Cummings of WVSports.com on the On3 Network, for an in-depth conversation about the 2025 Mountaineers (2-4, 0-3 Big 12), covering Rich Rod’s return, dealing with a myriad of injuries including at the quarterback position (sound familiar?), defensive struggles in conference play and his expectations for this game.
Rodriguez Returns: A surprise hire?
Rodriguez, who is No. 4 among active Power Four coaches with 192 career wins, made a name for himself at WVU during the 2000s. He won four BIG EAST Championships during his seven-year run from 2001-07, before leaving for Michigan. Things didn’t pan out in Ann Arbor as he was fired after three seasons, and he later resurfaced at Arizona where he mostly had winning seasons, and most recently at Jacksonville State where he won conference championships in 2022 and 2024.
Keenan acknowledged the move surprised some.
“Rich was always on the list, but not necessarily the top of it,” Cummings said. “But he impressed AD Wren Baker during the interview process and had big-time support. Given his ties to the state and understanding of the culture, it just made sense.
“West Virginia was looking for a different style, a different type of coach than what they had under Neal Brown. And you know, Rich fits that. He’s known for his hard edge and tough teams. Obviously the way it ended in in 2007, there’s some sore feelings (from fans), but Rich gets it. He understands West Virginia and he understands what it’s all about.”
Cummings said the fanbase reaction to the hire was mixed.
“Some fans were hurt over how it ended, but many others never stopped wanting him back. Now most are warming up to it,” Cummings said. “And winning, more than anything, can heal those wounds.”
Beat Pitt, but struggling in the Big 12
The roster overhaul in Morgantown has been extreme, though UCF can relate.
“He had to add 80-some new players. It’s been crazy,” Cummings said. “They lost a lot of seniors and even more to the transfer portal.”
Predicting how everything would come together in Year 1 was difficult. In the preseason, Cummings predicted a 7-5 record but that was just based on a gut feeling. Nobody really knew. Most fans were just hoping for six wins and a bowl game.
“There were so many new faces in so many different places that this was a team that was really going to be pretty much an unknown,” Cummings said. “And then once you get into the season, West Virginia has dealt with a lot of injuries. They lost their top two running backs, one of their top receivers, and multiple quarterbacks. So it’s been a carousel.
“They’re not where anybody really expected them to be right now at 2-4, but West Virginia did get one thing done early this season. They did manage to beat Pitt, which keeps a lot of people in Morgantown happy.”
The overtime win vs. Pitt came a week after losing to Ohio.
“They had so many opportunities against Ohio. The defense forced three turnovers in the second half and the offense couldn’t do anything with it. And it’s kind of the exact opposite of what people expected.
“But again, I mentioned some of the injuries and that was a game where they lost two players.
“The real issue with West Virginia has been their offensive line. It’s hard for them. It’s a completely new unit. I mean, they lost seven of their top eight guys from last year and multiple backups to the transfer portal. So it’s just it’s been a process rebuilding that.
“Against Pittsburgh, West Virginia played well early. Then Pitt gets the lead and all the momentum. And then West Virginia storms back, forces overtime and wins the game. It really kind of changes the trajectory of the season in a sense, just from the way that fans look at this.
“Nobody’s going to be happy at 2-4, but when one of those two wins is your archrival at home in a game that you were underdogs, I think that most people will take that.”
In Big 12 play, WVU lost at Kansas 41-10, loss at home to Utah 48-14, then lost on the road at BYU, 38-24. They are coming off a bye week.
“The luster of (the Pittsburgh) win is wearing off a little bit,” Cummings said. “But West Virginia did not get an easy schedule to open Big 12 play. They played three really difficult teams. So they haven’t really gotten an easy draw, but they’re going to have to play more competitive, I think, for fans to calm down a little bit.”
Injuries on offense are mounting
Five different quarterbacks have taken snaps due to injuries. Starting QB Nicco Marchiol is out for the season with a foot injury. Texas A&M transfer Jaylen Henderson is doubtful. Max Brown, a transfer who saw time at Florida and Charlotte, is still banged up.
That leaves redshirt freshman Khalil Wilkins and true freshman Scotty Fox Jr. as WVU’s top QB options this week. Both are athletic and mobile, but unpolished.
“Wilkins started at BYU and ran for 89 yards. Fox played late and had a nice touchdown pass. Rich is not afraid to play both guys in a game,” Cummings said. “That’s been the theme all year, he’ll rotate QBs depending on the situation.”
Statistically, Wilkins leads the team with 195 rushing yards, while Fox is credited with two of the team’s three longest plays this season.
West Virginia’s offense, a staple of Rich Rod’s legacy, has sputtered. The offensive line has been a problem area due to massive turnover.
“West Virginia is probably going to try to run the ball quite a bit, but they do have some weapons on the outside if they can get the ball to them.”
Two of their top playmakers, RB Jahiem White and WR Jaden Bray, are out for the year.
RB Tye Edwards, the Pitt game hero (140 yards, 3 TDs), likely is doubtful with a hip injury.
That leaves RB Diore Hubbard as their top RB option. Their leading receivers are Cam Vaughn (6 receptions of 20+ yards), and TE Grayson Barnes, who caught the game-tying pass vs. Pitt. Vaughn is a Jax State transfer that followed Rich Rod to Morgantown.
Defensive struggles in Big 12 play
Defensive coordinator Zac Alley, who came from Brent Venables’ staff at Oklahoma, was a major hire. Early returns in non-conference play were solid, just 14 points per game allowed, but things unraveled once Big 12 play began.
“They’ve struggled to generate a pass rush, and tackling has been a big issue,” Cummings said. “Even when guys are in the right spots, they’re missing tackles.”
Scrambling quarterbacks have hurt them, Cummings said.
In the BYU loss, safety/nickel Fred Perry forced two fumbles and led the defense alongside Chase Wilson, who added 11 tackles and an interception. Perry is top 10 in the Big 12 in tackles per game (7.2)
Corner Michael Coats has had a strong season outside of a rough game at BYU.
West Virginia has forced 10 turnovers (4 fumbles/6 interceptions) this season, tying for No. 3 in the Big 12. The Mountaineers are ranked No. 19 in FBS with four fumble recoveries this season.
Keys to the Game: Run the ball, stop the run
Cummings said WVU’s success hinges on this:
“If WVU is going to win, they have to run the football and stop the run. They need to stay ahead of the sticks, especially with young QBs.”
He also pointed out that UCF’s ability to hit explosive plays could be dangerous.
“They gave up some deep shots to BYU, so the secondary will need to be better against UCF’s vertical threats.”
A measured optimism in Morgantown
With a difficult schedule ahead, including TCU, Houston, Colorado, Arizona State and Texas Tech, this game is one of WVU’s best chances to steal a road win.
“They didn’t get any favors from the schedule,” Cummings said. “But fans are hopeful the bye week helped reset things. It’s hard to win on the road in this league, but they’ve done it before in Orlando.”
Cummings expects a close game and offered a tentative prediction.
“I think this one is 28-24 or 24-21. I’ll go with West Virginia finding a way.”
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