UCF vs. North Carolina Football Preview with Tommy Ashley of Inside Carolina
With North Carolina visiting the Bounce House on Saturday for the first-ever meeting between UCF and UNC, I connected with Tommy Ashley, a longtime reporter and podcast host for Inside Carolina (On3) and one of the most seasoned voices on Tar Heel football.
During out 50-minute conversation, Ashley offered his perspective on Bill Belichick’s hire and his first UNC team, the quarterback question, a fast-rising freshman tailback, and why he views UCF–UNC as a true “crossroads game” for the Heels.
A career’s worth of context
We opened with how long Ashley has been at this and what the past year has felt like around Chapel Hill.
“I started doing this back in ’97–’98 when Inside Carolina still printed a newspaper/magazine,” Ashley said. “It doesn’t feel like it’s been 20-plus years, but it has. I was around for the end of Mack Brown 1.0 in ’97 when that team went 11–1 and Mack left for Texas. Since then, I’ve seen a lot. But the last 12 months? Unlike anything I’ve ever covered with Carolina football.”
Breaking (and believing) the Belichick hire
Ashley walked through how Inside Carolina advanced the Bill Belichick story from rumor to reality.
“Taylor Vippolis dropped it first. Honestly, when I heard it I laughed—no way, right? Then more people we trusted said, ‘No, this is real.’ And on December 11, 2024, Bill Belichick walked into the Blue Zone at Kenan Stadium as UNC’s head coach. I was on the front row. It was surreal—wall-to-wall national media, Marty Smith FaceTiming into Pat McAfee from the room. You don’t see that around here for football.”
Fan reaction: hype, disbelief… and reality checks
How did UNC’s core fan base process it?
“It was everything from ‘this is ridiculous and will never work’ to ‘this is the best day in UNC football history,’” Ashley said. “The hype train ran full speed right up to TCU, and 48–14 cooled it off in a hurry. Beating Charlotte (20–3) and Richmond (41–6) steadied things, but fans want proof against someone better than an FCS team or a rebuilding G5. That’s why this game at UCF matters.”
Why UNC did it: football investment as the real headline
Ashley emphasized the institutional pivot behind the scenes.
“Belichick is the headline, but the money is the story. Carolina has never pushed all the chips in on football like this. Facilities, personnel, operations—it’s a wholesale investment. In the realignment era, you either look and act like big-time football or you get left behind.”
Realignment: where would UNC fit?
Many feel when conference realignment picks up again, North Carolina will be the pick of the litter. So if they did leave the ACC, what would the fans prefer – Big Ten or SEC? Ashley thinks the fan vote is decisive.
“If you polled the base, I’d say 70–75% SEC, 25–30% Big Ten, and a sliver wanting to stay in the ACC. For me, I’m a southern guy—I’d rather go to Georgia or Ole Miss than Rutgers in November. Either way, the money decides it. And UNC is a crown jewel: national brand, basketball pedigree, and if football gets humming, huge upside.”
He added that a move wouldn’t kill rivalries.
“UNC–Duke will be played, conference or not. Schedule it like Kentucky–Louisville. There are ways to preserve what matters.”
Belichick’s endgame (and why he’s likely to stick awhile)
What does Bill want out of this? Some have wondered if Belichick views UNC as his final coaching job or just wants an avenue to get back to the NFL. There was the offseason talk about a low buyout on Bill’s end.
“There are 30 million reasons for him to be here at least three years—$10 million per year, guaranteed in each of the first three seasons,” Ashley said. “Does the NFL wins record tempt him? Sure, he’s close. But everything Carolina has put in place and everything he’s building says this isn’t a short-term pit stop. I’d be surprised if it’s not two to three years minimum, health permitting.”
There were rumors Bill pushed for a head-coach-in-waiting clause for his son Steve Belichick, who is defensive coordinator.
“That was not in the contract. It got talked about, but it’s not a thing.”
Recruiting and the “33rd NFL team” pitch
How does Belichick recruit in the NIL/portal era?
“He’s not the banana-pudding-in-your-living-room type,” Ashley joked. “But if you’re a high school kid or portal guy with NFL dreams, being coached by Bill Belichick is a heck of a closer. They’ve NFL-ized the operation. Michael Lombardi is the GM, personnel identifies and acquires, coaches coach. The pitch isn’t just ‘we’ll get you drafted’; it’s ‘you’ll be NFL-ready when you get there.’ In 2025 they have 70 newcomers overall. It’s a roster flip with a pro footprint.”
UNC’s 2026 recruiting class is currently ranked No. 18 by Rivals with a whopping 37 commitments.
Staff snapshot
Ashley offered his thoughts on Belichick’s staff, which has met some national criticism for lack of college experience.
“People are going to yell nepotism with (Belichick’s sons) Steve (DC) and Brian (DBs/safeties), and the GM’s son, Matt Lombardi, is the QB coach, and look, that comes with the territory. But they’ve done the work in the league. Jamie Collins coaching LBs brings fresh-off-the-field credibility. Natrone Means with the RBs is a steady hand.
“Offense? I’m not sold on (offensive coordinator) Freddie Kitchens as play-caller yet. But early-season judgments are tricky as talent, injuries, and QB performance muddy the water. End of the year is when it gets graded.”
Year-one expectations
How did he think UNC would fare in Belichick’s first season?
“Among our staff, picks ranged from 6–6 to 10–2. I went 8–4 mainly because the schedule is manageable. With all the investment and hype, 7–5 probably keeps the train on the tracks; 6–6 would feel like a miss.”
After UCF, the Tar Heels play Clemson (home), California (road), Virginia (home), Syracuse (road), Stanford (home), Wake Forest (road), Duke (home) and NC State (road).
QB picture: Gio Lopez or Max Johnson?
Despite what should have been outmatched competition against Charlotte and Richmond, UNC’s offense hasn’t looked great and it starts with the quarterback, South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez.
Through three games, Lopez has completed 58.5% of his passes for 343 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT; backup Max Johnson went 9-for-11 for 103 yards and a TD in limited duty vs. TCU.
“Gio’s tape is what it is so far: late and inaccurate, and you can’t be both. The OL injuries are real—down to a third-string center for stretches—and the early narrative was that Kitchens wasn’t helping him. But when we did our film rooms, there were plays to be made. He just didn’t pull the trigger or missed them.
“I’m not saying Max is Joe Burrow, but you can’t leave Orlando not knowing what you have at quarterback. If Gio is flat again, you have to take a real look at Johnson.”
UNC’s offense ranks No. 125 nationally in total offense (279.0 ypg) entering Saturday.
Pieces around the QB: a freshman pops and WR1 emerges
A true freshman has emerged as UNC’s top running back, at least early on.
“RB Demon June came in as the fifth-string and just took the job, 200 yards already and runs with no fear,” Ashley said. “He’s not a 4.3 guy, but he’s a no-nonsense, downhill runner.
“At receiver, Jordan Shipp looks like WR1. He could’ve been close to 200 yards vs. Richmond if the ball placement was there. Chris Culliver can hit you over the top, and Kobe Paysour is a reliable chain-mover. If the QB play stabilizes, this group can look a lot better fast.”
Up front, Ashley expects improvement as health returns.
“(Center) Austin Blaske is the one they really need back. With a mobile QB you don’t have to be perfect, but the center issues have been disruptive. It was better last week.”
Defense: from five-star flash in the pans to three-star fundamentals
UNC’s defense is allowing 19.0 ppg and 337.3 ypg through three (admittedly uneven) opponents.
“The old complaint was (Mack Brown had) five-star DL playing on skates. Now you’ve got more three-star types playing with fundamentals, which is what Steve Belichick keeps hammering. I thought they were better than the box score at TCU—then they smothered Charlotte (three points, 21 rush yards) and controlled Richmond. The step-up test is UCF’s speed and multiplicity.
“Thad Dixon is an All-ACC-level DB. Andrew Simpson, Khmori House, Jake Bauer are active at LB, if a little light. The stress point is if you have a second and third receiver who can win—TCU’s WR2 did the damage.”
UNC lists top-10 national ranks in red-zone defense (.455) and pass defense efficiency components entering the week.
Why he calls UCF a “crossroads game”
A 2-1 record is what Ashley expected at this point.
“TCU is a tier we’re not on yet; Richmond/Charlotte don’t tell you much,” Ashley said. “UCF has like-talent on the road, in a real atmosphere. You find out who you are in a game like this, especially on offense and especially at quarterback.”
Prediction (with caveats)
Ashley thinks UNC can win, though is not as confident as he would’ve been prior to the season.
“Back in August I picked Carolina to win in Orlando because I thought UNC would be cleaner by now and UCF down from its peak. After three games, I’d take the points if the line is UCF –6.5.
“If Carolina gets competent QB play, I like them 28–24. If it’s more of the same at quarterback, UCF wins, and maybe by a score that feels comfortable. I won’t be surprised by any outcome.”
Carolina fans headed to Orlando
Ashley expects a solid contingent of UNC fans in the Bounce House.
“Before TCU, this was the road trip (the fanbase) circled—Orlando, warm weather, Disney. The blowout took some wind out, but you’ll still see a decent Carolina contingent. Not a takeover, but noticeable. I’m a sit-in-the-stands guy, not press box, so I’m excited to experience the Bounce House. Just hoping the weather holds after hearing about UCF’s lightning delays.”
To get the full lowdown on UNC, check out Inside Carolina and The Tar Pit message board, right here on On3.
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