Between the Bets: Three wagers for Georgia-Ole Miss
With Georgia and Ole Miss one day away from kicking off, here are three wagers for the game.
Georgia receiver Colbie Young O39.5 receiving yards -126
This feels like an odd line given Young’s production this season. Perhaps it’s due to the -7.5 betting line that suggests Georgia will lead early and ride the running game against Ole Miss. However, Young has been a focal point of the offense all season long and 40 yards feels more than doable.
Young has cleared this number in four of six games. In SEC play, the only game he didn’t pass 40 yards came against Kentucky, which Georgia took control of quickly. Even last week, Young caught four passes for 53 yards in the strangest of games. In SEC play and against Washington State, the Rebels have allowed at least one receiver to clear 40 yards in each game. Against Kentucky, three receivers crossed 40 yards and two receivers hurdled this mark for Arkansas and LSU.
Young is averaging 48.5 yards per game in the SEC, which includes a 9-yard outing against Kentucky bringing this average down. Everything points to an over here.
Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton O28.5 rushing yards -125
Ole Miss has faced two true dual-threat quarterbacks. The first was Arkansas’ Taylen Green, who rushed for 115 yards. The second was Tulane’s Jake Retzlaff, who accounted for 61 rushing yards. While the quarterback run isn’t a major part to Georgia’s offense, there are enough designed runs to make this line intriguing to take. That doesn’t mention the number of scrambles where Stockton has made something out of nothing, too.
Stockton has averaged 33.5 rushing yards against SEC competition. Georgia has allowed only eight total sacks this season. More importantly, the Rebels have only recorded nine total sacks on their end. With Ole Miss vulnerable to the run — it ranks 14th in the SEC at 157.7 rushing yards allowed per game — and with dual-threat quarterbacks having success running the ball, this looks like a great play.
Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy O74.5 rushing yards
Georgia has done a good job at limiting the run. However, Lacy is a volume runner averaging 21 carries per game. He’s failed to clear 74.5 yards only twice, against Arkansas and Tulane. Against LSU, Lacy carried the ball 23 times for 87 yards and against Washington State he toted the ball 24 times for 142 yards. Lacy is a traditional bell cow as the Rebels don’t use a committee.
Tennessee (114 total rushing yards) and Alabama (76) both used committees at running back and crossed 74.5 rushing yards against Georgia. Kentucky’s committee (53 rushing yards) and Auburn’s Jeremiah Cobb (50) fell short of the 74.5 threshold.
Against SEC opponents, Tulane and Washington State, Lacy is averaging 95.8 rushing yards per game. If Ole Miss is leading or within striking distance for most of the game, you can bet Lacy will be fed plenty. This is a high volume, high percentage play.
Last week
Ugh. The slow, methodical pace of Auburn in the first half combined with its inability to move the ball in the second ruined Jackson Arnold’s ability to cross 174.5 passing yards. Stockton had chances in the second half, but he and Chauncey Bowens rushed in both of the Bulldogs’ touchdowns.
Branch, however, was the saving grace as he finished with 57 receiving yards. It was another 1-2 finish, bringing this column even for the year. There’s only one thing to do from here and that’s sweep this week.
Year to date: 6-6