Fearless Forecast: Minnesota vs. Northwestern
Something has to give when Minnesota and Northwestern meets on Saturday at Wrigley Field.
Either the Gophers will win their first road game of the year after four straight defeats away from Minneapolis, or the Wildcats will taste victory for the first time ever at the Friendly Confines after going 0-6 there since 2010, including last week’s two-point loss to Michigan on the final play of the game.
The Gophers and Wildcats share a lot of the same traits and put up scoring numbers that are remarkably similar in both offense (22.7 ppg for Minnesota, 21.9 for Northwestern) and defense (19.6 ppg allowed for NU, 21.6 for U-M). They both want to run the ball and often struggle passing. They both beat Purdue and lost to Oregon by at least 20, though the Gophers knocked off Nebraska (at home, of course), while the Wildcats fell to the Huskers.
The last time these two teams met was a seminal game for the Wildcats and head coach David Braun. Northwestern trailed the Gophers 31-10 going into the fourth quarter before scoring three unanswered touchdowns to tie it in regulation, and then won it, 37-34, in overtime with yet another TD. It was Braun’s first Big Ten win and it hinted at what turned into a magical Northwestern run to a Las Vegas Bowl win.
The Wildcats come into this matchup with the Gophers desperate for a victory after losing three straight, including two, to Nebraska and Michigan, they feel like they let slip through their fingers.
Can the Wildcats get off the schneid at Wrigley, or will they fail to notch their sixth, bowl-clinching win for the fourth week in a row?
WildcatReport’s staff weighs in with our picks.
MORE FROM MINNESOTA WEEK: Behind Enemy Lines: Minnesota l Notebook: Braun says offense has ‘a lot of work to do’ to reach championship standard l ‘Long journey’ back from injuries pays off for TE Hunter Welcing
Matt Shelton (7-3)
Health always plays a factor at this time of year and how close to 100% Minnesota star running back Darius Taylor is will be key. He’s rushed for 140+ yards twice this year, and 198 yards and two touchdowns when these two teams last met in 2023. However, he’s rarely been at full health this season and had just 10 carries for 57 yards at Oregon.
Northwestern has ceded 120+ yard performances from a receiver and running back against both USC (Makai Lemon and King Miller) and Michigan (Andrew Marsh and Jordan Marshall). Minnesota is no slouch; after all, they’ve already locked in a bowl berth but their offense isn’t nearly as physical or explosive as Northwestern’s recent foes, especially if Taylor is hampered. The Gophers have had just one 100+ yard receiving performance on the season, by Le’Meke Brockington, against Cal.
Freshman Drake Lindsay is more mature than most first-year starters but has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in each of his past four games. With improved tackling showcased against Michigan, and a less explosive opposing top receiver, I think Northwestern can key in on the ground game and eke out a sixth win of their own.
Prediction: Northwestern 24, Minnesota 20
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Louie Vaccher (7-3)
A lot is riding on this game for Northwestern.
This will be the Wildcats’ last chance to get a win at Wrigley Field in the foreseeable future – and maybe ever. Plus, if they want to get that sixth win to guarantee bowl eligibility, this is their best opportunity. They are favored, Minnesota is winless on the road and clinching at Champaign next week seems like a big ask.
I say Northwestern gets the Wrigley monkey off their back against the Golden Gophers. The reason? Neither team can throw the ball very well and both play pretty good defense, but Northwestern has a much better running game. The Wildcats average 4.7 yards per carry and 169.4 yards per game; the Gophers, meanwhile, have the worst rushing attack in the Big Ten at 3.5 yards per rush and 105 per game. Even if Taylor plays, I don’t think the Gophers will be able to run the ball consistently against the Wildcat front.
Northwestern is a little more physical on the line of scrimmage than the Gophers and Caleb Komolafe proves to be the difference as the Cats grind out the win in a tight, low-scoring defensive struggle.
Prediction: Northwestern 20, Minnesota 17
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