Fearless Forecast: Northwestern vs. No. 19 USC
Northwestern is out of their bye week and in sunny Los Angeles to take on USC, the 19th-ranked team according to the CFP poll released this week.
The Wildcats are 0-5 all-time against USC. The most recent meeting was the famous 1996 Rose Bowl, when the Purple went to Pasadena but came up short against Keyshawn Johnson & Co., 41-32.
The oddsmakers think that history will repeat itself, as the Trojans are 14.5-point favorites at home. USC has not lost at home to a team outside of the Top 5 since their 38-20 loss to UCLA in their 2023 regular-season finale.
Although the Trojans won narrowly at Nebraska, 21-17, last week, they have one of the most prodigious offenses in the Big Ten, featuring the conference’s leading passer, Jayden Maiava, and the leading receiver, Makai Lemon, in yards per game.
Will Northwestern be able to jump start their offense out of the bye week and shock USC in LA? Or will the Trojans’ prolific passing be too much for the Wildcats to handle?
WildcatReport’s staff weighs in with our picks.
MORE FROM USC WEEK: Behind Enemy Lines: USC | Notebook: Northwestern looks to rally out of bye week at USC
Matt Shelton (6-2)
This Northwestern team has a couple traits I just can’t seem to shake when I consider these predictions: they haven’t been able to score more than three touchdowns in Big Ten play, and they haven’t been able to come back on a Big Ten team other than Penn State this season. Now, that’s a pretty big exception to the rule, but it’s an exception nonetheless.
Northwestern works best when they can play bend-don’t-break defense, limit explosive plays, dominate the ground game and dictate the tempo. USC has had issues stopping the run, namely in a rain-soaked game at Notre Dame, when the Fighting Irish rushed for an astounding 306 yards; and last week, when Nebraska rushed for 188. So, there is some hope here that the Wildcats can leverage Caleb Komolafe to get to the offensive looks they want.
But USC’s offense has elite talent at quarterback and receiver that will take advantage of Northwestern’s hampered secondary. Safety Damon Walters, cornerback Josh Fussell and cornerback Ore Adeyi are “hopeful” to return for this game, per David Braun, but they aren’t assured. And they’re likely not 100% if they do play. That plays right into Maiava and Lemon’s hands.
I think USC gets their athletes in space, Northwestern’s offense has to play from behind and the Wildcats can’t keep up the pace.
Prediction: USC 31, Northwestern 17
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Louie Vaccher (5-3)
Northwestern is overmatched in this one but still have a path to victory, in my mind.
The Wildcats rank fifth in the Big Ten in rushing, averaging just under 190 yards per game. Komolafe is coming off of a career-high 125-yard day against Nebraska. On the flip side, USC ranks 11th in the league against the run. As Matt pointed out, Notre Dame gashed the Trojans for more than 300 yards, and Nebraska put up 188 on them just last week. So offensively, if the Wildcat line can get a push up front and establish the ground game, NU can control the clock and keep that high-octane USC offense on the sideline.
Northwestern’s defense, meanwhile, just has to do what they do: play a lot of Cover-4 on the back end, keep everything in front of them to prevent the big play over the top, and make the Trojans execute over long drives. I think they’ll be able to keep the Wildcats in the game.
It’s sounds simple enough, but three things are preventing me from calling for an upset here. One, Preston Stone has been turnover prone, throwing more interceptions (9) than any QB in the Big Ten. Two, Northwestern’s special teams have been shaky recently and I question whether they can be relied upon to win a game like the Cats want to play. And three, while Lemon is USC’s star wideout, the guy on the other side, Ja’Kobi Lane, is tied with his teammate at third in the league with 50 catches.
The Cats keep it close but can’t quite pull off the Hollywood ending.
Prediction: USC 24, Northwestern 17
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