Fearless Forecast: Northwestern vs. Penn State
After four straight home games, Northwestern hits the road to take on Penn State at Beaver Stadium, the second-largest stadium in the nation with a capacity of more than 106,000 — or about 94,000 more than they’ve been playing in front of at Martin Stadium.
Has there been a Northwestern game in recent memory whose outlook has changed as much in the span of one day as this one? Last Saturday morning, this looked like another potential 40-point beatdown by a Top 10 Nittany Lions squad. But by the end of the day, the the gap between the two teams seemed to shrink considerably as Penn State lost a shocker to previously winless UCLA — the same team that Northwestern had beaten the week before — while the Wildcats won their second straight in an easy romp over ULM with their best offensive performance of the season.
The now unranked Nittany Lions are still 21.5-point favorites, but the Wildcats now have some hope. And that notorious PSU crowd may be harder on the Nittany Lions and embattled head coach James Franklin than they are on the Wildcats — especially if NU grabs an early lead.
Can Northwestern pull off another upset of the Lions and turn up the heat even further on Franklin? Or will Penn State find their mojo and restore order in Happy Valley?
WildcatReport’s staff weighs in with our picks.
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Matt Shelton (4-1)
UCLA gives Northwestern hope that this can be closer than expected, but I think a Nittany Lions team more like the one that took now-No. 3 Oregon into double overtime shows up, rather than the one that got shocked at the Rose Bowl.
Despite the appalling loss, they are supremely talented and now they know they must play perfectly from here on out for any chance to salvage their season. While there’s a chance a mercurial crowd or outside pressure can put them on tilt with some early Northwestern success, I think it’s far more likely Penn State comes out with a vengeance.
This season has been defined by the running game. Northwestern has rushed for 175+ yards in four straight games for a 3-1 record, establishing a powerful attack behind the emergence of Caleb Komolafe. But they’re also 0-2 when they allow 150+ rushing yards. Expect a healthy dose of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, plus a dreaded dual-threat quarterback in Drew Allar.
I think the Nittany Lions jump out to a big lead then trade a couple scores down the stretch.
Prediction: Penn State 41, Northwestern 14
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Louie Vaccher (4-1)
I think Northwestern can keep this game close.
The defense can hold a Penn State offense that’s been inconsistent all season in check; at the very least, they’ll make them earn their points. If the offense can get Komolafe going on the ground to eat some clock and establish some play-action passing, they could have a shot at an upset late in the game – especially if Penn State turns the ball over a couple times. The longer the Wildcats keep it close, the more the pressure will mount on the Nittany Lions, and the more the fans will turn against them.
But Northwestern’s offense doesn’t have a lot of big-play potential and it’s going to be difficult to grind out long drive after long drive against a Lions’ defense that, despite allowing 42 points to UCLA, is still extremely talented. The offensive line will have its hands full keeping the pocket clean for Preston Stone against the likes of Dani Dennis-Sutton and Zane Durant up front. And we’ve seen what can happen when Stone gets pressured.
I figure it will be a low-scoring game, which is good for the Cats. I just don’t think the Wildcat offense has enough firepower to steal the win.
Prediction: Penn State 24, Northwestern 14
