ESPN’s BPI projects strong first season for Ross Hodge and West Virginia
West Virginia begins the Ross Hodge era tonight, and the early data from ESPN’s Basketball Power Index suggests optimism for the season ahead.
The Mountaineers enter the year with a BPI rating of 14.1, which ranks 33rd nationally, and ESPN’s projections forecast a 20.9–9.1 overall record and a 10.6–7.4 mark in Big 12 play. The model gives West Virginia a 1.6% chance to win the conference and ranks the remaining schedule 68th nationally in difficulty.
Breaking down the projections
BPI measures team strength and projects future performance using thousands of simulations that factor in opponent quality, travel, pace, rest, and location. It’s designed to represent how many points above or below average a team is on a neutral court per 70 possessions.
For West Virginia, the numbers show a favorable start to the non-conference slate, followed by the challenges of Big 12 play.
BPI Game-by-Game Predictions
| Opponent | Location | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Mount St. Mary’s | Home | 97.8% |
| Campbell | Home | 96.9% |
| Lehigh | Home | 98.3% |
| Pitt | Home | 79.1% |
| Lafayette | Home | 96.9% |
| Clemson | Neutral | 47.5% |
| Mercyhurst | Home | 98.9% |
| Coppin State | Home | 99.0% |
| Wake Forest | Neutral | 70.3% |
| Little Rock | Home | 96.9% |
| Ohio State | Neutral | 52.0% |
| Mississippi Valley State | Home | 99.0% |
| Iowa State | Away | 23.3% |
| Cincinnati | Home | 66.2% |
| Kansas | Home | 60.8% |
| Houston | Away | 10.0% |
| Colorado | Home | 88.4% |
| Arizona State | Away | 79.0% |
| Arizona | Away | 19.6% |
| Kansas State | Home | 75.0% |
| Baylor | Home | 59.8% |
| Cincinnati | Away | 40.3% |
| Texas Tech | Home | 58.2% |
| UCF | Away | 63.1% |
| Utah | Home | 82.4% |
| TCU | Away | 65.8% |
| Oklahoma State | Away | 70.1% |
| BYU | Home | 59.8% |
| Kansas State | Away | 50.9% |
| UCF | Home | 83.2% |
Record breakdown based on BPI simulations
| Category | Record |
|---|---|
| Overall | 25–5 |
| Conference | 14–4 |
| Home | 18–0 |
| Away | 5–4 |
| Neutral | 2–1 |
Neutral-site games include Charleston Classic and other tournament matchups; away record reflects true road contests only.
What it means
While ESPN’s projections still have West Virginia in the middle of the Big 12 pack, the numbers reflect a solid foundation for Hodge’s first season. With a rebuilt roster and renewed energy around the program, the analytics point to the Mountaineers competing well above preseason expectations if they can navigate a balanced conference schedule.
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