What the numbers say about the Backyard Brawl
The Backyard Brawl doesn’t need hype, but if you look at the numbers leading into Saturday, they’re painting an interesting picture.
Pitt gets the edge in the projections
According to the latest College Football Simulator projections, Pittsburgh is favored to beat West Virginia 32-27 with a 63 percent chance of winning. That edge comes largely from the Panthers’ explosive offense, which has averaged 53 points per game through the first two weeks and carries an A- grade in the ratings.
Mountaineers searching for consistency
West Virginia has been more balanced with C+ marks on both sides of the ball, and that hasn’t translated into impressive play. The Mountaineers are putting up 27.5 points per game and are coming off a frustrating 17-10 loss at Ohio that sent their ranking tumbling from 70 to 100. Pitt, on the other hand, has climbed from 57 to 46 with convincing wins over Duquesne and Central Michigan.
Strength vs. balance sets the tone
The contrast is clear, Pitt has been scoring at will, while West Virginia has leaned on steadiness and is still finding its stride. The simulator even highlights the mismatch, putting Pitt’s offensive firepower against a WVU defense that has yet to be truly tested.
Rivalry factor always changes things
But here’s the catch: the Brawl has never been a game decided by charts and ratings. West Virginia has the home field, and Rich Rodriguez knows this rivalry as well as anyone. In games like this, emotion has a way of skewing the numbers.
On paper, the Panthers get the nod. On the field, it’s still the Backyard Brawl.
| Category | West Virginia | Pitt |
|---|---|---|
| Simulator Win % | 37% | 63% |
| Projected Score | 27 | 32 |
| Offensive Grade | C+ (78) | A- (93) |
| Defensive Grade | C+ (79) | B (83) |
| Average Points/Game | 27.5 | 53 |
| Current Rank | #100 | #46 |
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