WVU an underdog vs Pitt in updated ESPN FPI projections
West Virginia heads into this weekend’s Backyard Brawl as an underdog according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. The model gives the Mountaineers a 40.6 percent chance to knock off rival Pitt, compared to 59.4 percent for the Panthers.
This week’s matchup
The Brawl is always unpredictable, and this year is no different. FPI leans toward Pitt, but with the percentages close to a coin flip, the numbers suggest WVU has a realistic shot at pulling the upset.
Remaining schedule snapshot
Looking beyond Saturday, the model has the Mountaineers as the underdog in all of their remaining games. Still, that doesn’t mean the expectation is to lose out. FPI probabilities are about chances, not guarantees, and WVU will have opportunities in several matchups.
| Opponent | WVU Win % |
|---|---|
| Pitt | 40.6 |
| Kansas | 17.8 |
| Utah | 22.7 |
| BYU | 11.4 |
| UCF | 30.8 |
| TCU | 22.7 |
| Houston | 31.5 |
| Colorado | 49.1 |
| Arizona State | 17.5 |
| Texas Tech | 29.7 |
Expected wins
When you add it all together, FPI projects West Virginia for about 2–3 more wins this season. That’s a reflection of being the underdog in most games, but it also highlights how often underdogs pull off victories over the course of a season.
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