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Alabama football sitting at No. 3 on Bill Connelly's SP+ projections for 2022

47377776_10156854436900775_2208546246019252224_nby: Clint Lamb02/11/22ClintRLamb
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The 2022 SP+ projections from Bill Connelly of ESPN came out on Wednesday. Unsurprisingly, Alabama football once again found itself sitting as a preseason top-3 team. With that said, the projection might be lower than some fans expect, especially when the Crimson Tide are returning arguably the top two players in college football with quarterback Bryce Young and outside linebacker Will Anderson.

The projections currently have Alabama sitting at No. 3 behind Ohio State and Georgia. For those who aren’t aware, the SP+ projections are based on three primary factors: the returning production, that program’s recent recruiting success and recent history. Plus, Connelly has another reminder about his projection model for readers:

A reminder on SP+: It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.

It makes sense.

Alabama is returning a significant portion of its defense. The tackle leader (112) returns in Henry To’o To’o. As does the leader in tackles for loss (33.5) and sacks (17.5) in Anderson. Plus, two of the three players, Jordan Battle and DeMarcco Hellams, who brought in three interceptions are coming back as well. In total, only two of the 11 defenders who started in the national title game won’t return.

The offensive side of the football is a little more uncertain. Of the 2,132 rushing yards from running backs in 2021, 63% of that production came from Brian Robinson, who is now gone. And of the 3,894 receiving yards from wide receivers, 83% of it will not return to Tuscaloosa. That’s due to early departures for the NFL draft and the transfer portal. Plus, both offensive tackles and the No. 2 tight end.

That’s why there’s so much uncertainty.

Granted, Georgia has lost a lot of significant contributors — on both sides of the football — as well. So has Ohio State. All three teams also finished with top-4 recruiting classes, according to the On3 Consensus Rankings. I’d also say past success isn’t a scale-tipper either, considering all three teams have been to at least one national title within the last two years.

Here’s a recap of how other teams on Alabama’s 2022 schedule came out in the projections. But take note, FCS schools such as Austin Peay are not included.

6. Texas A&M Aggies (home, Oct. 8)

9. Tennessee Volunteers (away, Oct. 15)

12. Mississippi State Bulldogs (home, Oct. 22)

22. Ole Miss Rebels (away, Nov. 12)

25. Auburn Tigers (home, Nov. 26)

28. Arkansas Razorbacks (away, Oct. 1)

33. Texas Longhorns (away, Sept. 10)

45. LSU Tigers (away, Nov. 5)

91. Utah State Aggies (home, Sept. 3)

113. Vanderbilt Commodores (home, Sept. 24)

130. UL-Monroe Warhawks (home, Sept. 17)

SEC teams not on Alabama’s schedule include Georgia (No. 2), Florida (No. 18), Kentucky (No. 21), South Carolina (No. 49) and Missouri (No. 54).

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