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ESPN FPI: Alabama's chances to make playoffs after Florida State loss

1918632_10206777287683070_1367905321192383146_nby: Charlie Potter08/31/25Charlie_Potter
Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer
Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer (Melina Myers / Imagn Images)

Alabama entered the 2025 season with the fourth-best chances to make it back to the College Football Playoff, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. But that is no longer the case.

The Crimson Tide opened the 2025 campaign with a 31-17 loss at unranked Florida State, a team that finished with a 2-10 record last year. Before toe met leather at Doak Campbell Stadium, Alabama had a 66.2% chance to make the 12-team playoff. But after the defense couldn’t get a stop in the first half and the offense stalled in FSU territory, the chances dropped.

Alabama now has a 14.6% chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN. That’s tied with USF, which won big over Boise State this week, and behind 24 teams.

After its season-opening loss in Tallahassee, the Crimson Tide has a 2.2% chance to win the SEC (down from 17.2% before the season), a 1.6% chance of playing in the national title game and a 0.8% chance of winning the national championship (down from 10.8%) this fall.

Bowl eligibility isn’t a guarantee, according to ESPN, as Alabama’s chances of winning six games is now 82.3%. The chances of the Tide winning out and finishing the regular season with an 11-1 record are 0.1%, per ESPN. Even Lloyd Christmas doesn’t like those odds.

Alabama will look to right the ship with a home game against ULM on Saturday, Sept. 6.

Chances of making College Football Playoff

Ohio State — 82.1%
Georgia — 79.9%
Texas — 70.2%
Ole Miss — 66.7%
Penn State — 58.8%
Oregon — 57.9%
USC — 55.8%
Notre Dame — 52.3%
Tennessee — 49.9%
LSU — 48.0%
Miami — 34.5%
South Carolina — 31.6%
Texas A&M — 30.9%
Auburn — 30.4%
Tulane — 30.4%
Florida — 30.2%
BYU — 27.8%
Utah — 24.2%
Iowa State — 21.0%
Clemson — 20.5%
Missouri — 18.2%
Michigan — 17.1%
Memphis — 16.6%
SMU — 15.2%
USF — 14.6%
Alabama — 14.6%
Kansas — 13.9%
UNLV — 13.9%
Georgia Tech — 13.2%
Arizona State — 10.4%
Oklahoma — 10.0%

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