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Playoff Predictor: Alabama's chances to make the CFP after Week 13

1918632_10206777287683070_1367905321192383146_nby: Charlie Potter4 hours agoCharlie_Potter
Alabama QB Ty Simpson
Alabama QB Ty Simpson (Gary Cosby Jr. / Imagn Images)

Alabama is currently in the College Football Playoff field, being ranked No. 10 in the third edition of the rankings. But the next two weeks will determine the Crimson Tide’s postseason fate. 

Alabama (9-2, 6-1 SEC) is the third-highest-ranked team with two losses, coming in behind No. 8 Oklahoma – which defeated the Tide in Week 12 – and No. 9 Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish only have one ranked win, compared to four for Alabama after 13 weeks of football. Right now, the Tide would travel to face No. 7 Oregon in the first round of the 12-team playoff.

But in order to remain in the hunt, Alabama must win next week’s Iron Bowl at Auburn. A road win over the in-state Tigers would punch the Tide’s ticket to the SEC Championship Game. The outcome of the league title game could determine whether Alabama is in the field or not.

A win over Auburn and a win in Atlanta would give UA a 100% chance of making the playoff, per ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor. A win over Auburn and a loss in the SEC title game would give the Tide a 59% shot at making the College Football Playoff. Lose both, and Alabama would have only a 2% chance, essentially ending its hopes for a second season in a row.

Many have suggested that the loser of the SEC Championship Game will not be left out of the playoff, but with the committee dropping UA to 10th, Selection Sunday could get interesting.

The top 11 teams aren’t expected to change when the CFP selection committee unveils its latest rankings on Tuesday, November 25. Despite Notre Dame having a worse strength of schedule, the Tide is expected to again be behind the Irish. Alabama just needs to take care of business in its next two outings, and all of this discussion would be for nothing – it will be in.

But all of it comes down to a trip to the Plains against an Auburn team fighting for bowl eligibility. That’s the message Kalen DeBoer shared to his players after Saturday’s Eastern Illinois win.

“Coach DeBoer said it best,” said Alabama offensive lineman Geno VanDeMark. “This is what he told us after the game: ‘If we told you guys you’re one game away from going and competing for everything that we hoped for and worked for all year long, you’d say yes.’

“Guys got hyped up. We’re like, ‘Yeah, of course. We would take that any day of the week.’”

The Iron Bowl is set to kick off at 6:30 p.m. CT and air on ABC on Saturday, November 29.

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