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The latest ESPN matchup predictor for the Florida Gators

On3 imageby: Keith Niebuhr09/02/25On3Keith
Floriad-Gators-Billy-Napier-DJ-Lagway
Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier and Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway (2) review a play against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. (Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)

Two weeks ago, the ESPN matchup predictor from the computers had the Florida Gators predicted to go only 6-6 in the regular season, far below the expectations of those inside the program and many outside of it. After the first week of games by UF and its opponents, the new numbers are out. And they certainly reflect what arguably is college football’s most difficult schedule.

At this time, the ESPN matchup predictor has Billy Napier’s team, which is 1-0 after beating LIU 55-0 last weekend, favored in only four of its remaining games. While there were mostly only minor percentage adjustments for most future UF matchups (see below), in the Florida-Tennessee game there was enough of a change that the Vols are now predicted to win according to ESPN as of today. They beat Syracuse 45-26 last weekend.

The ESPN matchup predictor numbers will shift throughout the season and are impacted by every result.

Meanwhile, the experts at BetMGM are more high on UF. They have the Gators’ win total at 7.5. UF is a 17.5-point favorite over USF, whom they play host to Saturday at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

In the current AP Top 25, the following UF opponents are ranked:

3. LSU
4. Georgia 
5. Miami 
7. Texas 
14. Florida State
19. Texas A&M
20. Ole Miss 
22. Tennessee 

Below is the full Florida Gators schedule with ESPN’s current matchup predictor chances:

Long Island University (Aug. 30)

8-21 predictor: UF 99.0 percent (W)
Result: Gators 55, LIU 0 (1-0)

South Florida (Sept. 6)

8-21 predictor: UF 90.4 percent (W)
9-02 predictor: UF 82.7 percent (W)

at LSU (Sept. 13)

8-21 predictor: LSU 57.5 percent (L)
9-02 predictor: LSU 59.6 percent (L)

at Miami (Sept. 20)

8-21 predictor: UM 53.0 percent (L)
9-02 predictor: UM 54.9 percent (L)

Texas (Oct. 4)

8-21 predictor: UT 70.3 percent (L)
9-02 predictor: UT 66.1 percent (L)

at Texas A&M (Oct. 11)

8-21 predictor: TAMU 60.7 percent (L)
9-02 predictor: TAMU 57.3 percent (L)

Mississippi St. (Oct. 18)

8-21 predictor: UF 83.0 percent (W)
9-02 predictor: UF 81.0 percent (W)

Georgia (Nov. 1)

8-21 predictor: UGA 69.2 percent (L)
9-02 predictor: UGA 72.1 percent (L)

at Kentucky Nov 8 (Nov. 8)

8-21 predictor: UF 69.1 percent (W)
9-02 predictor: UF 71.3 percent (W)

at Ole Miss (Nov. 15)

8-21 predictor: OM 58.8 percent (L)
9-02 predictor: OM 72.8 percent (L)

Tennessee (Nov. 22)

8-21 predictor: UF 51.5 percent (W)
9-02 predictor: UT 51.3 percent (L)

Florida State (Nov. 28)

8-21 predictor: UF 88.1 percent (W)
9-02 predictor: UF 77.3 percent (W)

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