ESPN tabs Fernando Mendoza as ‘1 to circle’ for No. 1 pick in 2026 NFL draft

The road from Memorial Stadium to the top of the NFL Draft board is a lonely one, paved by just a single Hoosier nearly nine decades ago. But if Fernando Mendoza keeps climbing, he might just find himself at the end of that path.

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been named a potential riser for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, according to ESPN’s Jordan Reid.

The recognition places Mendoza in rare company and even rarer air for a program that has long been overlooked on draft day.

It’s been 87 years since the Cleveland Rams selected Corbett Davis first overall in 1938 — the lone Hoosier ever taken with the top pick. Since then, Indiana has produced just five first-round picks in the NFL’s modern era, and none have cracked the top five.

Now, with a 12% chance of going No. 1 according to ESPN, Mendoza has cracked open a door many assumed was sealed shut.

ON3+: Can Fernando Mendoza replicate Kurtis Rourke’s record-breaking success at Indiana in 2025?

The 6-foot-5, 225-pound transfer from Cal arrives in Bloomington with a resume and skill set already turning heads in NFL scouting circles.

In 2024, Mendoza completed 68.7% of his passes for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns, adding two rushing scores. More impressively, he led the nation in off-target throw rate (5.1%) — a signal of elite-level precision that NFL evaluators covet.

“He can stand and deliver in the pocket with ease and is extremely accurate,” Reid wrote. “He also excelled throwing outside of the pocket, with a 91.1 QBR.”

Mendoza’s rise is more than just numbers. It’s narrative. He’s a Miami native, a transfer on a mission, and a key figure in Indiana’s football renaissance under second-year head coach Curt Cignetti.

With Indiana ranked No. 17 in ESPN’s post-spring power rankings and coming off a school-record 10-win season, Mendoza is expected to be the engine of a high-powered offense that ranked second nationally in points per game last fall.

His situation has scouts watching closely.

“I really liked Mendoza’s tape,” one NFC area scout told Reid. “He’s the one to circle that could be a bigger riser, and Cignetti has a great track record with transfer QBs.”

Indeed, Cignetti’s system has a history of amplifying quarterback potential.

Just last season, Kurtis Rourke parlayed a one-year stint in Bloomington into a selection in the seventh round. Mendoza, by most accounts, brings a much higher ceiling.

But he’s not without flaws. Reid notes that Mendoza occasionally abandons the pocket prematurely, missing opportunities to let plays develop — a tendency scouts will monitor throughout the 2025 season.

Yet with two years of eligibility remaining, he has time to refine those instincts and elevate his stock even further.

If Mendoza reaches the summit, he won’t be alone in Bloomington’s NFL spotlight. Cornerback D’Angelo Ponds has received first-round projections, while receiver Elijah Sarratt and defensive end Mikail Kamara are also on scouts’ radar.

SEE ALSO: Fernando Mendoza named ‘X-Factor’ for Indiana Football

No Indiana team — pre- or post-merger — has ever had multiple players taken in the first round of the same draft. That too, could change.

But the biggest headline remains Mendoza. For a program that has historically played in the shadows of college football’s blue bloods, the idea of producing the first overall pick isn’t just ambitious — it’s transformational.

Indiana football has already shattered expectations under Cignetti. Now, with Mendoza under center and on draft boards, the Hoosiers may be one season away from rewriting history once again.

And if things fall just right, Mendoza may soon join Corbett Davis — not just in Indiana lore, but at the very top of the NFL Draft stage.

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