Iowa Football Opponent Preview: Penn State Nittany Lions

No one could have predicted the circumstances that surround the game this week. Everyone expected this to be a top five ranked Penn State team visiting Iowa City, but instead, the Nittany Lions are in a state of free fall. They’ve lost three straight games and fired head coach James Franklin after 12.5 seasons at the helm. One of the preseason favorites to win the national title is now in a complete state of change.

The Nittany Lions enter this week with a 3-3 record, which, in itself, is crazy to see, but it’s a resume that will leave you completely speechless. A preseason AP top five team, PSU has lost three consecutive games, starting with an OT loss to #8 Oregon, which is more than respectable. However, they became the first FBS team to lose consecutive games as a more than 20-point favorite in the last 30 years, falling to UCLA (-25.5) and Northwestern (-21.5). Through six games, Penn State is winless in Big Ten play, with their “biggest” win coming against 2-3 Florida International.

Last Week: Northwestern 22 Penn State 21

This will be the 33rd all-time meeting between the Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions, with PSU winning seven of the last nine matchups. It’s the first time since 2012 that Penn State will visit Kinnick Stadium as an unranked opponent. Iowa enters as a 3.0-point favorite (per BetMGM), which is nearly a two-touchdown swing from where it opened prior to the season (+10.5). The Hawkeyes are 19-12-2 against the spread and 26-7 straight up as a favorite in Big Ten play over the past five seasons. Meanwhile, Penn State is 4-8 against the spread and 2-10 straight up as an underdog in Big Ten play over that same time frame.

NITTANY LIONS OFFENSE

2025 Numbers: 35.7 PPG, 169.0 RUSH, 200.8 PASS, 369.8 TOTAL

Quarterback

For the first time in 35 games, Penn State will have a different quarterback under center making the start. Injured in the loss to Northwestern, third-year starter Drew Allar is out for the season, which means they’ll be going from a quarterback with 1,002 career pass attempts to a quarterback with 13 career pass attempts.

A former four-star in the class of ’24, redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer committed to Penn State over offers from Indiana, Virginia, Minnesota, Memphis and Cincinnati. Out of Olentangy High School in Ohio, Grunkemeyer was an Elite 11 camp finalist, while he threw for 3,517 yards and 39 touchdowns as a senior in high school.

In his second year with the program, he has tallied just 39 snaps over five career games, completing 9-of-13 passes for 105 yards, one touchdown and one interception. In the non-conference finale against Nevada, Grunkemeyer completed 7-of-9 passes for 86 yards. He’s yet to take a snap in a game that wasn’t decided by at least four touchdowns.

Running Back

This position group, coming into the season, was the most highly touted of any on the roster, and for good reason too. The pairing of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 2,207 yards and 20 touchdowns last season. Expect to see them split their carries between two backs, with both guys getting an exact even share of the carries through six games. The duo has combined for 726 yards and 13 touchdowns on 140 carries (5.2 ypc).

Kaytron Allen has led the way thus far, rushing for 467 yards and seven touchdowns on 70 carries (6.7 ypc). He has a touchdown in all six games and has rushed for 80+ yards in three games, including a season-high 144 yards against FIU. It is worth noting that he has not had a single carry go for negative yardage. Allen has caught seven passes for 26 yards.

Meanwhile, last season’s leader in touchdowns and yards per carry, Nicholas Singleton has not had the same success as he did a year ago. He has rushed for just 259 yards on 70 carries (3.7 ypc) but has found the end zone six times. Singleton has been held to 40 yards or less in four of six games, including rushing for just 20 yards on seven carries (2.9 ypc) against Northwestern. He has been very reliable as a pass catcher, tallying 90 career receptions, including 12 receptions for 95 yards this season.

Wide Receiver / Tight End

Penn State ranks 88th in the country in pass attempts per game (28.3) and while most passing statistics can go out the window with a new quarterback taking the snaps, it’s fair to assume they won’t drastically change how often they throw it. They spread the targets out across a number of pass catchers, as the top three have earned 87-of-161 (54.0%) of targets, but the next three have combined for 46 targets (28.6%).

Starting at receiver, it’s a trio of transfers leading the way for the Nittany Lions. Syracuse transfer Trebor Pena is the team-leader in receptions, tallying 20 catches for 202 yards (10.1 ypr) and one touchdown. He has been held to just seven catches for 36 yards over the last three games. A year ago, with the Orange, Pena was a Second Team All-ACC selection, finishing with 84 catches for 941 yards.

USC transfer Kyron Hudson has been the most targeted receiver but has only been caught 19 passes on 34 targets for 218 yards (11.5 ypr), 13 first downs and two touchdowns. He did catch four passes for 52 yards against UCLA but combined for just one catch in losses to Oregon and Northwestern. Hudson caught 38 passes for 462 yards at USC last season.

Rounding out the trio of transfer pass catchers, Troy transfer Devonte Ross is someone that Iowa fans will recognize. He caught five passes for 142 yards and two touchdowns at Kinnick Stadium in the Trojans 38-21 loss to the Hawkeyes. This year, with PSU, Ross has caught 16 passes for 240 yards (15.0 ypr) and three touchdowns. He is coming off his top game of the season, tallying seven catches for 115 yards against Northwestern.

Looking at tight end, sophomore Luke Reynolds has taken over as the starter with Tyler Warren in the NFL. He has caught 18 passes for 197 yards, including three games with 45+ receiving yards. Senior Khalil Dinkins will see snaps as well, totaling seven catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns.

Offensive Line

Coming into the season, the Penn State offensive line was talked about as one of, if not the best groups in the entire country. Through six games, the Nittany Lions front ranks 13th in pass blocking grade (79.0) and 24th in run blocking (69.8). The offensive line has given up 43 pressures on 186 drop backs (23.1%), which is the third-lowest rate in the Big Ten behind Michigan (22.2%) and Ohio State (19.8%).

The Penn State offensive line is led by Second Team All-Big Ten left guard Olaivavega Ioane who is the 11th-highest graded lineman in the Big Ten (77.8) per Pro Football Focus and is the highest-graded pass blocker in the conference (92.0). Left tackle Drew Shelton ranks 28th-best overall (70.0), while center Nick Dawkins ranks 29th in pass blocking (76.5).

NITTANY LIONS DEFENSE

2025 Numbers: 18.5 PPG, 144.3 RUSH, 157.8 PASS, 302.2 TOTAL

Defensive Line

Last season, the Penn State defensive line averaged 11.06 pressures per game, while they ranked 23rd in the country in sacks per game (2.75). So far this year, they are averaging 11.83 pressures per game, while they are tied for 39th in sacks per game (2.40).

The majority of the pressure that this group produces comes from off the edge, with their top three combining for 57.6% of the defensive line pressures. The Nittany Lions returning sack leader from last season (8.5), edge rusher Dani Dennis-Sutton (300 snaps) leads the team with 20 pressures, 23 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks. He’s the guy that gets talked about nationally, but senior Zuriah Fisher (223 snaps) has been productive, totaling ten tackles, 2.0 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks, while he is second on team with 17 pressures.

The other names to know is true freshman Chaz Coleman (120 snaps). A four-star recruit, Coleman was really productive early in the season with nine pressures over the first two games, but has just four tackles and three pressures over the last four games. He is averaging 20.0 snaps per game.

On the interior, senior Zane Durant (255 snaps) is the big name to know. He tallied 42 tackles and 8.0 tackles for loss as a defensive tackle last season. In six starts, Durant has 18 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks and six pressures. He’s coming off a season-high eight tackles and a sack against Northwestern. Alongside him will be former ODU transfer Alonzo Ford (165 snaps), but redshirt freshman Xavier Gilliam (206 snaps) has earned a larger share of the snaps over six games. Ford and Gilliam have combined for 16 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss and seven pressures, with six of those pressures coming from Gilliam.

Linebackers

One of the best players for the PSU defense, North Carolina transfer Amare Campbell (345 snaps) had a big year for the ‘Heels last season as a sophomore (10.5 tfl, 6.5 sk) and has carried it over to the Nittany Lions defense. He’s played 37 more snaps than anyone else on the defense, tallying a team-high 50 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, two sacks and leads the team with 24 stops, which is a tackle that constitutes a “failure” for the offense. After totaling 76 tackles last season at UNC, Campbell is averaging 8.3 tackles per game and is on track for a 100-tackle regular season.

As good as Campbell is at creating some havoc from the linebacker spot, his weakness is pass coverage and he’s been put in that position probably a bit more than the PSU staff would like. He’s allowed 19 catches on 22 targets for 147 yards (6.7 ypt) and one touchdown.

Depth is an issue at this position, after junior Tony Rojas went down with a significant injury in practice prior to the UCLA game. Since the injury, fifth-year senior Dom DeLuca (245 snaps) has started the last two games, averaging 75.0 snaps in two starts, which is a large increase from the 23.8 snaps he averaged over the first four games. DeLuca finished with a career-high 40 tackles last season, but is set to easily surpass that with 31 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss this year.

Behind DeLuca is a lot of inexperience and the Nittany Lions haven’t opted to test them yet, with Rojas and DeLuca combining to miss just three snaps over the last two games. Junior Keon Wylie (76 snaps) did play a season-high 27 snaps against Northwestern, finishing with four tackles.

Defensive Backs

The Penn State secondary, through six games, has allowed opponents to complete 61.8% of passes for 947 yards, allowing eight touchdowns and grabbing four interceptions. They’re 90.3 coverage grade ranks 21st in the country.

There’s a lot of names to note in the PSU secondary, as they have moved some pieces around throughout the year. A preseason All-Big Ten selection, corner AJ Harris (266 snaps) was expected to be the top cover guy for the Nittany Lions, but some are wondering if he got benched against Northwestern after giving up a touchdown. He’s given up eight catches on nine targets for 121 yards (13.4 ypt) and two touchdowns.

With Harris out of the lineup after just 18 snaps against the ‘Cats, that meant more snaps for junior Audavion Collins (224 snaps) and junior Elliot Washington II (184 snaps). They both played season-high snap counts in the loss, but unless Harris was injured, expect him to be back in some capacity this week. Collins leads all PSU corners with 21 tackles, while he has given up 11 catches on 15 targets for 90 yards (6.0 ypt). As for Washington, he’s tallied 13 tackles and an interception, allowing four catches on 12 targets for 82 yards (6.8 ypt). Although Harris was the preseason star, the Collins-Washington duo is giving up just 6.37 yards per target compared to 13.4 yards per target for Harris in coverage.

The other names to know are junior Zion Tracy (154 snaps) and redshirt freshman Kenny Woseley Jr (172 snaps). They’ve both played slot corner this season, but Tracy missed last game with an injury. If he is able to go, he’s allowed nine catches on 13 targets for 67 yards (5.2 ypt) and one touchdown. A former three-star, Woseley Jr leads the team with 103 slot corner snaps, allowing eight catches on 14 targets for 79 yards (5.6 ypt).

At safety, senior Zakee Wheatley (308 snaps) is the top player in the PSU secondary, leading the group with 46 tackles, while he is second on the team in stops (14). He hasn’t been tested much in coverage, allowing five catches on seven targets for just 31 yards (4.4 ypt). Wheatley has played 103 snaps in the box as a run stopper, which is 43 more snaps than any other player in the secondary group.

Meanwhile, Alabama transfer King Mack (250 snaps) is the opposite guy in the safety pairing. He’s second amongst the DB’s with 24 tackles, while he’s been good in pass coverage, allowing four catches on nine targets for just 22 yards (2.4 ypt). Former four-star and sophomore Dejuan Lane (134 snaps) is averaging 22.3 snaps per game, totaling 16 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss.

NITTANY LIONS SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker Ryan Barker: 10/11 FG, 23/23 PAT, LNG 49

Punter Gabe Nwosu: 14 punts, 637 yards, 45.5 AVG, LNG 67

Kick Returner King Mack: 4 returns, 123 yards, 30.8 AVG, LNG 73

Punt Returner Devonte Ross: 8 returns, 71 yards, 8.9 AVG, LNG 34

FINAL THOUGHT

This game, prior to the season, was one that we penciled in as a loss for the Hawkeyes. All of the sudden, Iowa is a favorite and with the way that the Nittany Lions season is trending, this is a game that Kirk Ferentz and Co. need to win. It’s such a tough game to evaluate. Penn State is still one of the most talented teams in the country, but they will be sending their backup quarterback to Kinnick Stadium, while their defense has given up 94 points (31.3 per gm) and 1,141 yards (380.3 per gm) during the losing streak. Normally, you’d be worried about a team having the interim head coach bump, but it’s also fair to say that PSU had aspirations that most teams firing their head coaches don’t have. It’s really hard to know what to expect from the Nittany Lions this week.