KSR's 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Guide

Adam Luckettby:Adam Luckett•03/13/23•

adamluckettksr

One of the best Sundays on the calendar has come and gone as we officially have a bracket. Now comes the fun part as gamblers across the globe unite for some postseason hoops.

An argument can be made that the NCAA Tournament is the best postseason in sports and that is largely due to the format. The single-elimination setup over three weekends makes this product very easy to digest and super easy to gamble on. Whether filling out a traditional bracket, making single-game wagers, or digging into the futures market, there is a ton of information to parse through before making a bet at the window.

Football is usually king in the betting market, but the NCAA Tournament has its own moment in the sun. Buckle up for what should be a wild week with 12-plus hours of basketball for four consecutive days starting on Thursday afternoon.

To help get you prepared for the weekend, KSR has dug into the data to pull out some tidbits to know for March Madness. Consider this your official betting guide for the NCAA Tournament no matter what type of wager you will be looking to make this weekend.

Let’s find some winners.

Title favorites

If you have a hunch about who is going to win the entire enchilada, this is likely the futures bet for you. The best odds you will get all tournament on who will win the title is right now. Per Draft Kings, here are the current favorites to cut down the nets in Houston.

  • Houston (+475)
  • Alabama (+650)
  • Purdue (10/1)
  • UCLA (12/1)
  • Kansas (12/1)
  • Texas (14/1)
  • Arizona (16/1)
  • Gonzaga (16/1)
  • UConn (18/1)
  • Baylor (25/1)
  • Marquette (25/1)
  • Tennessee (25/1)
  • Kentucky (35/1)
  • Duke (35/1)
  • Creighton (40/1)
  • TCU (45/1)
  • Saint Mary’s (45/1)
  • Kansas State (45/1)
  • Miami (50/1)
  • Indiana (50/1)

Despite getting a No. 6 seed, Kentucky owns the 13th best odds to win the title. That is likely due to a combination of name brand and draw. Very interesting that the Cats are above No. 3 seed Kansas State. Could UK be a betting favorite if those two matchup in the second round?

Historically, teams need to rank inside the top 20 of both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency to win the title. Alabama, UConn, Houston, and Texas are currently the only teams that meet the criteria, per KenPom‘s data. That’s some pretty good value for the Huskies at 18/1.

Region odds

Another popular bet for folks can be what teams will win the four regions and make the Final Four. The odds will be smaller, but you will find some plus value in this market. Let’s dig into how the four regions shake out as tournament week is underway.

— East: Purdue (+220), Marquette (+425), Tennessee (+425), Duke (+800), Kansas State (10/1), Kentucky (12/1), Michigan State (15/1), Memphis (16/1), USC (20/1), Florida Atlantic (20/1), Providence (30/1)

— South: Alabama (+190), Arizona (+425), Baylor (+550), Creighton (+750), San Diego State (+900), West Virginia (14/1), Virginia (15/1), Utah State (25/1), Maryland (25/1), Missouri (40/1), NC State (50/1)

— Midwest: Houston (+160), Texas (+300), Xavier (+700), Iowa State (10/1), Indiana (12/1), Miami (14/1), Auburn (15/1), Texas A&M (18/1), Iowa (20/1), Penn State (35/1), Drake (45/1), Mississippi State (50/1), Kent State (50/1), Pittsburgh (80/1)

— West: UCLA (+275), Kansas (+350), UConn (+400), Gonzaga (+425), Saint Mary’s (10/1), TCU (12/1), Arkansas (14/1), Boise State (22/1), Northwestern (35/1), Illinois (35/1), VCU (50/1), Arizona State (60/1), Nevada (70/1), Iona (70/1)

If you feel strongly about any No. 1 or No. 2 seed making the Final Four, putting a little money down on the region winner is a wise decision due to all of the plus odds available. On this list, it’s worth noting that No. 2 seed UCLA is the favorite in the West, Houston & Texas are heavy favorites in the Midwest, No. 6 seed Creighton has sneaky high odds in the South, and Tennessee has much better odds than likely second round opponent Duke in the East.

Pittsburgh is a cover machine

Former VCU and Oklahoma head coach Jeff Capel was very much on the hot seat entering year five at Pittsburgh. The ace recruiter for Mike Krzyzewski at Duke logged four losing seasons at Pitt to begin his tenure never winning more than six conference games in a season.

Thanks to some good work in the transfer portal, Pitt turned it around in 2022-23 going 22-11 (14-6) earning the program’s first NCAA Tournament bid since 2016. The Panthers will play in Dayton on Tuesday against Mississippi State in the First Four largely due to bad computer rankings. However, this group that owns a top-25 offense has overachieved expectations all season.

Pitt has been a cover machine this year with a 22-10-1 against the spread record (ATS) with seven outright upsets. The Panthers are a two-point dog in the play-in game on Tuesday night. However, this team is worth ATS consideration each matchup due to their strong performance against the number all season.

Vermont is a live dog

The No. 15 over No. 2 upset seems like it happens more often in the current landscape. Everyone in the Big Blue Nation is still having Saint Peter’s nightmares. However, we’ve seen Ohio State, Michigan State, Georgetown, Duke, and Missouri all bow out in the first round since 2012.

If it’s going to happen this year, keep an eye on Vermont vs. Marquette in Columbus.

Shaka Smart got on the map by leading VCU from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011, but the former Texas head coach is 0-6 in his last six NCAA Tournament games with a loss as a No. 3 seed in 2021 after winning the Big 12 Tournament with the Longhorns.

Meanwhile, Vermont enters the Big Dance having won 15 consecutive games as the Catamounts play at a super slow pace with high-level offensive efficiency. Vermont’s top goal is to get a good shot and sprint back on defense. That play style could hurt Marquette’s fast-break offense.

Don’t be surprised if the Catamounts have Marquette on the ropes in the second half on Friday afternoon.

You know we had to find some trends. When placing your wagers this week or filling out a bracket, here are the stats you need to know.

  • Maryland is 5-11 in games away from home this season
  • Texas A&M is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games
  • San Diego State unders are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 outings with eight consecutive covers
  • Northwestern unders are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 outings
  • Gonzaga overs are 8-1 ATS in the last nine outings
  • Tennessee is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games
  • Kentucky overs are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 outings
  • Providence overs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven outings
  • Providence is 1-4 ATS in their last five games
  • Duke is 8-12 ATS (with four consecutive covers) in their last 19 games
  • Iowa State unders are 7-2 ATS in the last nine outings
  • UConn is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games

Best of luck with your plays this weekend. Let’s have some fun.

Discuss This Article

Comments have moved.

Join the conversation and talk about this article and all things Kentucky Sports in the new KSR Message Board.

KSBoard

2024-05-03