BTI's Rants and Ramblings: A Mississippi State Fan's View on the Game

This is not Russell

*So we often preview games from the view of the UK fan, looking through blue tinted glasses and with best expectations.  But that often doesn’t give us a real look at what the opponent will be bringing to the game.  So I asked a good buddy of mine and Mississippi State fan, Russell, to put some thoughts together about his team from the perspective of a Bulldogs fan.  And allowed him to talk a little smack in the process.  Here is what he sent me: 

So my good friend BTI has allowed someone from Mississippi to come on the site this week for some friendly banter, but mainly to tell you how Mississippi State is going to remind you this weekend that it’s about that time to start looking forward to basketball… just in case your 3-0 start is getting anyone’s hopes up.  Does anyone read football posts here anyway?

Anyway, I’m BTI’s intern this week in charge of the MSU fan perspective, so I guess that makes me the intern to the intern.  And forgive us MSU fans if we come off arrogant this year, because historically I would say we’re a “woe is us” fanbase that has been content with reaching bowls and pleased with 8-win seasons with no expectations of even semi-regularly ascending to the SEC’s upper tier.  This year is different though, because this may be the best team that MSU has EVER fielded, which includes a 2014 team that spent six weeks as the #1 team in the nation.

MSU is currently 5^th nationally in Football Outsiders S&P ratings, and 9^th in the ESPN Power Index as well as the Sagarin ratings.  We have Dan Mullen to thank for that, although most fans won’t admit that to themselves and hope that he fails miserably at life from here on out.  Joe Moorhead has taken Mullen’s team and possibly shown that he’s an even better offensive coach thus far, and he deserves credit for that since it’s not always easy for a 1^st year coach to sustain success when left with a good roster (look no further than Willie Taggart for what a 1^st year coach is NOT supposed to do when left with top 5 recruiting classes).

• What are you most confident your offense can do?

Offensively, stats are mostly meaningless through 3 games since MSU has played an FCS team and a SunBelt team, but MSU is currently 8^th nationally in total offense and 9^th in scoring (1^st and 2^nd in the SEC respectively).  The Dawgs return 4 starters on an OL that is the unit’s strength.  Elgton Jenkins is the top rated NFL center prospect in the nation by Todd McShay and Mel Kiper, and Daryl Williams is a top 5 guard prospect, and they pave the way for a rushing attack that finished 2^nd in the SEC in 2017.  Moorhead has kept the QB run a focal point of the offense, which fits MSU’s personnel as Nick Fitzgerald needs just 195 yards rushing to break Tim Tebow’s record for all-time rushing yards by an SEC quarterback.

• Where is your offense the weakest or where do you think UK can exploit the MSU offense?

The Achilles heel for the MSU offense is consistency in the passing game.  Fitzgerald is a career 55% passer, and only 52% so far in 2018.  While his accuracy on downfield throws is erratic, the other primary reason for MSU’s inconsistency in the passing game is a lack of dynamic wideouts.  Mullen and company struggled to recruit WRs the last several years, and that shows up on obvious passing downs.  MSU does well on early downs with play action passes and RPOs, but if UK can force MSU into 3^rd and longs and obvious passing situations, MSU might have trouble converting 3^rd downs.

• What are you most confident your defense can do?

This is the 2^nd or 3rd deepest and most talented MSU defense of my lifetime, as MSU currently has 3 players (DE Montez Sweat, DT Jeffrey Simmons, and S Johnathan Abram) projected as potential 1^st round NFL picks.  The DL is very deep and experienced, and excelled in ’17 and ’18 at stopping the run and rushing the passer.  MSU is currently 6^th nationally in scoring D and 8^th in total D, and returns all but 2 starters from a unit that finished 10^th nationally in total defense in ’17.

• Where is your defense the weakest or where do you think UK can exploit the MSU defense?

It may not fit what UK does best, but the weakest part of MSU’s defense is likely it’s pass D.  MSU will be missing a starting corner due to injury at arguably its weakest position.  Elite WRs such as Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, and AJ Brown were able to exploit MSU’s corners in 2017, so taking some deep shots will be a key for UK.  MSU is also making the transition from Todd Grantham to Bob Shoop at defensive coordinator, so it remains to be seen if Shoop will have the unit playing with the same discipline and intensity.  Shoop is hard to figure out, he’s had some really good years, but also some equally as bad such as his defenses at Tennessee the last couple of years.  While MSU has been good against the run, it does have lapses of inconsistency at times and elite teams such as UGA, Auburn, and Alabama were able to run on MSU in ’17.  UK only had 260 total yards against MSU in 2017 and only 115 on the ground, but Terry Wilson just looks like a different cat (pun intended) to me.  I think UK can have more success on the ground in this year’s game.

• Is there a way to slow down Nick Fitzgerald?

Break his ankle like Ole Miss did in 2017? For a moment I thought Fitzgerald looked a tad more tentative running the ball coming off of a serious ankle dislocation that ended his ’17 season, but he’s still rushed for 266 yards the last 2 games.  But like I said earlier, containing the run on early downs and forcing MSU into obvious passing downs can expose Fitz’s inconsistency in his downfield passing.

• Name one player most people don’t know about that actually has a huge impact on the game.

Most of MSU’s production will come from returning players that are known commodities, although RB Kylin Hill isn’t a household name.  Senior RB Aeris Williams rushed for 1,107 yards a year ago, but he has essentially been unseated by the talented sophomore Hill.  I also mentioned MSU’s lack of talent at wideout earlier, but JUCO WR Stephen Guidry is the player that MSU is hoping that can come in and change that narrative.

PREDICTION

Other than pain?  I think MSU will be the second best team UK faces in 2018 next to UGA, but at the same time this UK team looks to me like it could be the 2^nd best team in the East.  Terry Wilson looks like he’s made UK much harder to defend, but I think this MSU defense will still be hard to consistently score on.  I see the spread is around -10.5 and Vegas occasionally knows what they’re talking about, so I’ll go with 31-20 MSU.

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