3 Reasons why Forte is a Vulnerable Kentucky Derby Favorite

Forte will likely enter the gates at Churchill Downs as the favorite to win Kentucky Derby 149. His connections are among the best in horse racing: trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey Irad Ortiz and owner Mike Repole. His resume is just as impressive. In his seven starts, he’s only lost once, claiming five graded stakes titles.

This horse has everything you want in a Kentucky Derby winner and a Triple Crown contender, yet there are a few kinks in the armor. If you want to try to beat the favorite, here are a few reasons why Forte may fall on the first Saturday in May.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Winners Don’t Guarantee 3-Year-Old Success

In the 38-year history of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, only two horses that have been crowned 2-year-old champions have won the run for the roses. Street Sense was victorious in 2007, followed by Nyquist in 2016.

The past does not always predict the future, but it’s a notable trend filled with disappointments in the Kentucky Derby. The most notorious was Arazi. The French-trained racehorse had one of the most dominant wins in Breeders’ Cup history. A few months later more money was bet on Arazi to win than the rest of the Kentucky Derby field combined. Lil E. Tee pulled off a shocking upset with Pat Day on the ride.

Many 2-year-old champions earn that title because they mature quicker than their competition. Winning the Kentucky Derby is all about peaking at the right time and there’s an argument to be made that Forte may have already shown us his best form.

Weak Competition for Forte

Forte has been lightly raced ahead of the Kentucky Derby. His two wins were in the Florida circuit against other colts that aren’t seen as the best of the bunch. The Kentucky Derby entries he defeated were Mage (15-1), Rocket Can (30-1) and late entry Cyclone Mischief (30-1). A win is a win, but in horse racing not all wins are created equally.

The Speed Figures Don’t Tell a Tale of Dominance

In the world of football recruiting, it’s difficult to create a pecking order when the players do not regularly share the same field. The same can be said in the sport of horse racing. Handicappers use speed ratings as a tool to bridge that gap. Forte’s have been solid, but will not blow you away.

He’s narrowly hit triple digits in both of his starts as a 3-year-old, posting a 103 and 100 on the Brisnet scale, respectively. For comparison’s sake, last year Epicenter posted a 101 and Zandon a 103 before they were caught by Rich Strike down the stretch. To take it one step further, Forte’s Florida Derby performance did not stand out as impressively as Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass or Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby.

Completely throwing Forte out of your exotic bets is not a decision I would advise, however, it might not be a bad idea to try to beat the 2-year-old champion at this year’s Kentucky Derby.