5 Reasons to Believe Kentucky will Beat Ole Miss

Kentucky is an underdog at home. A week ago, we watched the Wildcats throw for 85 yards at Kroger Field, while Ole Miss racked up more yards than any other team in college football. Kentucky has two SEC wins at home in three years.

There are reasons why Big Blue Nation is struggling to believe that Mark Stoops can begin his Kentucky football turnaround with a victory over Ole Miss. Allow me to share a few reasons why you should believe in the Big Blue.

A Misleading Ole Miss Box Score

Ole Miss did what Ole Miss does against non-Power Conference foes: put up video game numbers. In the season opener against Georgia State, they scored 63 points and had 695 yards of offense. It’s startling on paper, but the tale of the game was much, much different.

Following the first scripted drive, which ended in a touchdown to an unguarded tight end streaking down the field, the Rebels stubbed their toe. An Ole Miss offensive lineman got rag-dolled, allowing Georgia State to drill Austin Simmons and force an interception. Instead of turning it into points, Georgia State got a field goal blocked. On the next possession, Simmons threw another pick by trying to force the ball in between multiple defensive backs.

The first 25 minutes were a sweat for Ole Miss. It was a 17-7 game until Ole Miss punched in a touchdown right before halftime.

The Passing Game Can’t Be That Bad, Right?

Zach Calzada started playing college football when Lynn Bowden was quarterbacking at Kentucky before Covid. This man has appeared in almost 40 games. You have to go back to his third game as a true freshman in 2019 — vs. UTSA he threw 4-7 for 27 yards and an interception — to find a worse performance than what he showed in his Kentucky debut.

Was that bad game a one-off, or should we throw out four years of hard data and assume he stinks?

I get it. Kentucky fans are scarred. We’ve watched Mark Stoops roll out incompetent passing attacks for 13 years. Seeing a 10-completion, 85-yard performance feels like more of a norm than an outlier, but it is a huge outlier for Calzada.

Things didn’t go his way in his Kentucky debut. The man was hyped, probably a little too hyped, and it got him out of his game. We can all question Kentucky’s passing attack in the macro, but still believe that is the worst we’ll see from the seventh-year quarterback this fall.

Austin Simmons’ First Start on the Road

Austin Simmons is the SEC’s wunderkind. The 19-year-old reclassified up two years and earned his college degree before beginning his third season of football. Passing a test in class is much different than a test on the road in the SEC.

The southpaw is making his first start against an SEC foe and it will be in a hostile environment. Communication issues will inevitably arise. That also applies to his center. The man tasked with communicating calls to the entire offensive line is making his second career start.

Kentucky Thrives in Week Two

Mark Stoops lives by the motto, “You see the most improvement from week one to week two.” The results prove that’s the case. Mark Story crunched the numbers. Kentucky has won 24 of its last 27 games in week two. Some of the biggest wins of the Mark Stoops era were in the second game of the season: at South Carolina in 2015, at Florida in 2018, and again against Florida in 2022.

Kentucky was Built to be a Mismatch for Ole Miss

When folks think of Lane Kiffin’s offense, images of deep balls flying through the air are the first thing that comes to mind. Those explosive pass plays are made possible because of their steady running game. Ole Miss has had a top-five rushing attack in the SEC during every one of Kiffin’s seasons in Oxford.

Kentucky’s defense is built to stop the run and limit explosive plays. If successful, it makes Ole Miss one-dimensional, forcing the quarterback to shoulder the burden. That quarterback is playing behind an unproven, untested offensive line, which is facing a pass rush that had the highest grade in college football in week one.

On the other side of the line of scrimmage, Ole Miss has struggled against the run since Kiffin arrived, and they were leaky against Georgia State in week one, allowing 5.5 yards per carry.

Kentucky has a winning formula to knock off Ole Miss. They just have to execute it by making the right plays at critical moments. The gamblers know it’s possible. It’s time to believe it can become a reality.