5 Storylines 10 Days Out From College Basketball

It is that time of year again. The weather is starting to turn a little more crisp, football is in full swing, and the holidays are quickly approaching. However, that also means that college basketball season is right around the corner. Kentucky played their Blue-White Scrimmage last Friday and have their Pro Day and Big Blue Madness in the rearview mirror. Next up is an exhibition contest against #1 Purdue on Friday, October 24th at Rupp Arena. It is hard to believe we are just 10 days away from the 2025-2026 college basketball season.

In honor of hitting the 10-day-out mark, let’s take a look at five more of the biggest storylines entering the 2025-2026 season. Every five days we will release five more headlines and ultimately reach a total of 25 when the season begins on the 3rd of November. As Kentucky Sports Radio’s resident college basketball junkie, I will have plenty of other preview content, including my annual College Basketball Manifesto, over the next few weeks. It is almost here, folks!

• 5 Storylines 25 Days Out From College Basketball
• 5 Storylines 20 Days Out From College Basketball
• 5 Storylines 15 Days Out From College Basketball

As Jon Rothstein would say: And Here. We. Go.

Evan Miya Simulated the Season 10,000 Times

This was a very fun exercise last preseason and Evan Miya ran it back heading into the 2025-2026 campaign. Here are a handful of takeaways from his simulations.

• Only six teams had a “ceiling finish” of #1 in the country: Duke, Florida, Houston, Michigan, Purdue, and UConn.
• As you would expect, half of the teams listed above also have the least uncertainty when it comes to their finished product. Florida, Purdue, and UConn were three of the teams with the smallest variance between their ceiling and floor finishes.
• Meanwhile, notable programs such as Auburn, Duke, Kansas, and North Carolina had some of the highest levels of variance between their ceiling and floor finishes.
• The Southeastern Conference is expected to be, once again, the toughest conference in college basketball.
• As it pertains to Kentucky, the ‘Cats had a ceiling finish of second and a floor finish of 46th. The median finish was 15th. Evan Miya has Kentucky beginning the season 11th.
• Among true mid-majors (not counting the American, Mountain West, or WCC), Liberty’s ceiling finish of 34th, Yale’s ceiling finish of 37th, and McNeese’s ceiling finish of 40th stood out as the highest.

Coaches Ready to Take a Leap

Much is made about the hot seat, but what about the more fun side of that equation? Who are the coaches across the college basketball landscape that could see themselves land bigger, higher profile jobs next season? Last year, one of the coaches we highlighted was High Point’s Alan Huss who is now the coach-in-waiting at Creighton. Here are five names to watch heading into the 2025-2026 college basketball season.

Chris Gerlufsen (San Francisco). Coach Kyle Smith was hired by Washington State after three seasons at San Francisco. He is now at Stanford. Coach Todd Golden was hired by Florida after three seasons at San Francisco. He just won the national championship. If Coach Gerlufsen can break through to a NCAA Tournament berth this season he could be next in line to make a move. The Dons are preseason #84 in KenPom.

John Groce (Akron). It is probably time that Coach Groce gets another shot at the power conference level. He led Ohio to the Sweet 16 in 2012 and parlayed that into a job at Illinois. After five seasons Coach Groce was fired in Champaign, but he has now built Akron into a mid-major power entering year nine. The Zips have reached back-to-back NCAA Tournaments and went 17-1 in the MAC last season. They are the favorites to win the league again this year. Three straight NCAA Tournaments could be enough for someone to give Coach Groce a call.

Todd Phillips (Utah Valley). Grand Canyon leaving the WAC certainly won’t hurt Coach Phillips’ chances at a NCAA Tournament berth. The Wolverines are the heavy favorites to win the WAC in 2025-2026. He won 25 games last season and has a potential KenPom Top 100-team this year. Both Coach Mark Pope and Coach Mark Madsen before him used Utah Valley as a jump seat. Coach Phillips could be next in line.

Leon Rice (Boise State). The recipe to move up to the high-major ranks often involves pulling a first round upset in the NCAA Tournament. Coach Rice led Boise State to three straight tournaments, but they never could get over the hump. Then, last season, the Broncos won 26 games but ended on the wrong side of the bubble. If they can return to the NCAA Tournament, and win a game, someone will likely take a shot. Coach Rice is 216-177 in 15 years at Boise State. His age, turning 62 in the spring, would be the only limiting factor.

Takayo Siddle (UNC Wilmington). A recurring name on this list, Coach Siddle had a bit of a disappointing season with the Skyhawks in 2023-2024. They finished tied for third in the regular season and were bounced in the first round of the CAA Tournament. Still, they won 21 games and had their best KenPom finish of his tenure. However, UNC Wilmington then turned around last season and made their first NCAA Tournament of his tenure. Another CAA Championship and postseason berth would surely send him to the high-major ranks.

Best Mid-Major Players to Watch

We just highlighted some of the coaches who could take a leap following this season. Now, here is a look at the players you’ll want to keep an eye on at the mid-major level.

Robbie Avila (Saint Louis) – After breaking out as a star at Indiana State as a sophomore, Avila followed Coach Josh Schertz to Saint Louis. The 6’10” skilled center averaged 17.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game for the Billikens. Avila is back for his senior season after earning Second Team All-A10 honors last year. He will be one of the top mid-major players in the country.

Miles Byrd (San Diego State) – Byrd played in four games as a freshman, came off of the bench averaging 4.0 points per game as a sophomore, and then blew up into a Second Team All-Mountain West performer as a junior. The 6’7″ “3-and-D” wing averaged 12.3 points per game for the Aztecs and could play his way into the NBA Draft as a senior.

Mason Falslev (Utah State) – Utah State finished the season as a Top 20 offense according to KenPom’s adjusted efficiency thanks in large part to Falslev. The 6’3″ guard averaged 15.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.3 steals and shot 53-136 (39.0%) from three-point range. He will once again be the best player on one of the best mid-major teams in the country.

Javohn Garcia (McNeese) – Guys who earn Conference Player of the Year honors at the mid-major level usually end up bolting for the high-major ranks in the transfer portal era. However, that was not the case for Javohn Garcia as he elected to return to McNeese after bringing home Southland Player of the Year honors last season. Coach Will Wade left, but the Cowboys are still the clear favorite to go dancing for a third straight season. Garcia averaged 12.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.5 steals per game in 2024-2025. His two-way ability in the backcourt, and his impact on winning, is impressive.

Chase Walker (Illinois State) – The Redbirds were much improved last season and now are a legitimate Missouri Valley Conference contender in 2025-2026. Chase Walker’s return is a big reason why. A massive 6’9″ 270 pound presence, Walker averaged 15.2 points and 6.2 rebounds per game as a sophomore. Walker, along with teammate Johnny Kinziger will be appointment television at the mid-major level.

Matt Norlander’s Top 100 and 1

Matt Norlander of CBS Sports is one of the biggest voices in college basketball media. His annual preseason Top 100 and 1 ranking is an excellent season preview for fans to read. He also has some dissenting opinions on big name teams compared to many of his peers. Let’s take a look at some of the notable rankings in Norlander’s preseason poll.

• Kentucky checks in at #3. Norlander said it himself, “I am higher on Kentucky than anyone.” There might be more people buying the Wildcats’ stock after Friday night’s exhibition win over Purdue, but this piece came out prior to the game. The return of Otega Oweh, the addition of Jaland Lowe and Jayden Quaintance, and significant defensive improvements were listed as Norlander’s reasoning for his high opinion of the ‘Cats.
• Kansas ranked #7. Similar to Kentucky, Kansas made Norlander look pretty smart on Friday night. The Jayhawks went into Louisville and won 90-82 on the back of 26 points from superstar freshman Darryn Peterson. Exhibition contests should always be taken with a massive grain of salt, but it appears that Norlander picked the right two blue bloods to be high on entering the 2025-2026 season.
• Defending national champions at #11. For the most part, there has been a consensus top three across college basketball that includes Purdue, Houston, and Florida. However, Norlander has the Gators “all” of the way down at #11. There are some concerns about Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee’s ability to replicate Walter Clayton Jr. and company’s success in the backcourt.
• AJ Dybantsa and BYU begin at #15. Generally it is fair to approach a team led by a freshman with a little bit of pause. However, AJ Dybantsa is truly special and he has some talent around him as well. Richie Saunders is a proven player at BYU while Baylor transfer Rob Wright III is expected to make a big, instant impact in Provo. Norlander comes in a little bit lower on the Cougars than much of the national media.

Cameron Boozer and AJ Dybansta Live Up to the Hype

We were treated to our first live look at two of the best freshmen in college basketball this past week. Duke hosted UCF on Tuesday in an exhibition game while BYU travelled to Nebraska (at the time you are reading this, BYU will have also played UNC and Kansas went to Louisville). The nation’s most heralded recruits have all lived up to, if not even surpassed, their lofty expectations. Here is a look at how Boozer, Dybantsa, and Peterson have done in their respective exhibition contests.

• Cameron Boozer posted an incredible stat line of 33 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 assists in Duke’s dominant victory over UCF.
• AJ Dybantsa went off for 30 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals in his debut against Nebraska. The projected NBA #1 pick backed it up by scoring 18 points to go with 8 rebounds, 3 steals, and 3 blocks on Friday against North Carolina.
• Darryn Peterson scored 24 of his 26 points in the first half on Friday night as Kansas went to Louisville and won 90-82.