5 Storylines 15 Days Out From College Basketball

Football season is very much still in full swing. The weather is starting to change and we are getting some perfect fall days over the last week or so. However, basketball is right around the corner. In fact, the college basketball season officially tips off in just 15 days. Monday, November 6th will be here before we know it. Several Top 25 programs begin their seasons on that opening Monday including each of the preseason Top 5. It will be a massive slate of games to tip off the season before Baylor vs. Auburn really get things going on Tuesday, Nov. 7.

In honor of hitting the 15-day-out mark, we will be taking a look at five more of the biggest storylines entering the 2023-2024 season. Every five days we will release five more headlines and ultimately reach a total of 25 when the season begins on the 6th of November. You can find each previous article below:

• 5 Storylines 25 Days Out From College Basketball
• 5 Storylines 20 Days Out From College Basketball

As Jon Rothstein would say: And Here. We. Go.

Freshmen to Watch

The addition of Name, Imagine, and Likeness, along with the transfer portal, has made college basketball older than ever. We have seen the National Player of the Year return in back-to-back seasons. All-Americans have hit the portal as opposed to going pro. Getting old and staying old has overtaken the one-and-done philosophy for even some of the top programs. However, young talent is still exciting and there are plenty of freshmen who will make a major impact on the national landscape this winter. Here are some of the best freshmen in the country that you need to know.

• Isaiah Collier (USC). This 6’3″ point guard finished his high school career ranked number one in the On3 Industry Rankings. He has elite physical tools, can get to the rim consistently off of the dribble, and has continued to improve as a shooting threat. The Trojans will have a dynamic backcourt and Collier will be a big part of that. He had 23 points, nine rebounds, six assists, and four steals in USC’s secret scrimmage against UNLV on Saturday.
• Justin Edwards (Kentucky). The number two prospect in the 2023 On3 Industry Rankings will suit up for the Kentucky Wildcats. Edwards is the most highly regarded of Coach Calipari’s most recent number one recruiting class. He is a 6’8″ left-hander who is a matchup nightmare on the perimeter. Edwards scored 26 points in Saturday’s Blue-White Scrimmage.
• Cody Williams (Colorado). Coach Deion Sanders has turned Colorado football into a national brand. However, the Buffaloes will be better on the hardwood than on the gridiron this season. 6’8″ wing Cody Williams will be a big reason why as the likely NBA lottery pick suits up for the Buffs. He finished with eight points, seven rebounds, and three assists in Colorado’s secret scrimmage win over Texas on Saturday.
• Stephon Castle (UConn). If the Huskies have a chance to repeat it will be in large part due to Castle becoming one of the best guards in college basketball. The 6’6″ scorer will be slotted directly into the defending champion’s starting lineup.
• Elliot Cadeau (North Carolina). Year two of the Coach Hubert Davis era wasn’t nearly as fun as year one. After making a run to the national championship game, and entering last season with a number one ranking, the Tar Heels missed the tournament. Cadeau, arguably the most dynamic playmaker in the incoming freshman class, will make sure that doesn’t happen again.

Maui Invitational Preview

Year in and year out the Maui Invitational serves as one of the unofficial beginnings of the college basketball season. This year the field will be as loaded as ever. Three of the top five and five of the top 11 teams in the preseason AP Poll will take over the state of Hawaii from November 20-22.

• #9 Tennessee vs. Syracuse
• #3 Purdue vs. #11 Gonzaga
• #1 Kansas vs. Chaminade
• #5 Marquette vs. UCLA

Can Marquette Take the Next Step?

Coach Shaka Smart has the Golden Eagles trending in the right direction. In year one he took Marquette to the NCAA Tournament as a number nine seed. Then, in year two, they won 29 games and made the second round of the tournament as a number two seed. It was a disappointing end though to a magical season that saw point guard Tyler Kolek emerge as the Big East Player of the Year. Now, he is a Preseason First Team All-American. Coach Smart has done a great job of getting Marquette good again in a hurry. However, after a premature exit in last season’s tournament, expectations will be set higher.

Can the preseason number five Golden Eagles break through to the Final Four for the first time since the Dwayne Wade era? An elite backcourt with excellent overall roster continuity certainly lends itself to postseason success. That would be a change for Coach Smart though who hasn’t made the second weekend since his Final Four run at VCU in 2011. A lot of eyes nationally will be situated in Milwaukee throughout this season.

International Flair at UCLA

While most coaches set their sights on the transfer portal in the off-season, Coach Mick Cronin went outside the box, or quite literally, outside the country. The biggest prize came in 7’3″ Aday Mara who is widely considered a potential lottery pick in the 2024 NBA draft. His raw size and mobility will set his floor as a high-level rim protector and lob threat. UCLA also added 6’9″ Berke Buyuktuncel from Turkey. The left-handed forward is an excellent slasher and driver, but not much of a threat yet to stretch the floor. He should see minutes at the four for the Bruins. Finally, Jan Vide was brought in from Slovenia. The 6’6″ guard is a major threat in the mid-range and uses his size well to finish around the rim. Vide is also a very good passer who should help facilitate the ball on the perimeter.

UCLA’s trio of international recruits are all well-known in international NBA Draft circles and could give the Bruins an unconventional way of competing at the top of the Pac-12 once again. Finding some three-point shooting will be key. Additionally, meshing a bunch of 6’6″ and above pieces together will take some creativity. Will fielding one of the biggest rosters in college basketball be a recipe for success in Westwood? Coach Cronin is going to find out this season.

Consulting KenPom

Over the last few years, analytics have taken over the game of basketball. The shift to a data-driven approach first started with the “Moneyball” era Oakland A’s in baseball, but now it is all the rage across sports. It is now more uncommon to NOT have a “director of analytics” staff member than it is to have one. With the popularity of math in college basketball has come websites profiting off of the new intrigue. Ken Pomeroy is seen as the godfather of the movement, but since then others such as Evan Miyakawa and Bart Tovik have found large audiences in the space.

Since 1999, the furthest back KenPom’s data goes, there has been a very intriguing trend emerge. Of the 24 national champions during that time, only two teams have finished outside the top 20 of the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metric. First off, there is a small flaw in this commonly quoted trend. It stands to reason that winning six games in March, generally of increasing difficulty, would help catapult you up the efficiency rankings. For example, Connecticut started the NCAA Tournament ranked sixth and 18th respectively in offensive and defensive efficiency. That obviously still qualifies for the trend, but they finished third and seventh respectively to show what a run to the title can do to your rankings. However, it is still a worthwhile metric to track.

So, using the top 20 cutoff, who are the teams capable of winning the national championship in 2023-2024?

• Purdue (2nd Offensive, 14th Defensive)
• Kansas (9th, 1st)
• Houston (3rd, 5th)
• UConn (8th, 4th)
• Baylor (5th, 20th)
• Alabama (14th, 11th)
• Creighton (11th, 18th)
• Michigan State (17th, 10th)
• Arkansas (19th, 9th)
• Auburn (16th, 15th)

Those are your 10 teams to watch to begin this college basketball season according to KenPom.