6 Things to Consider Ahead of the Craziest College Football Coaching Carousel Yet

The Coaching Carousel delivers drama to college football that is only comparable to the NBA’s daily soap opera. Whispers are currency, second only to the millions of dollars changing hands while desperate programs search for the perfect person to fix all of their problems.

Typically, Coaching Carousel talk is relegated to the end of the season. This year, things are different for a few reasons. Before it cranks up to an unprecedented speed, let’s lay out the land to share why this year’s moves around college football will be unlike any other before.

Revenue Sharing Uncertainty Controls Coaching Carousel Speed

Revenue-sharing has created a double-edged sword for this two-year cycle. Schools were uncertain about their financial futures when revenue-sharing appeared imminent a year ago, but it was far from finalized. Administrators needed to find an additional $20 million in their budget. Adding another multi-million dollar line item was too financially risky.

That is one reason why a coach like Billy Napier received an additional year to figure it out. There was not one SEC coaching change after the 2024 season. North Carolina was the only major opening, and it did not create dominoes elsewhere because they hired a coach from the NFL.

Revenue-sharing slowed down the Coaching Carousel. Now, it’s amplified the speed tenfold. Schools have their financial ducks in a row, and there’s a fear of getting left behind during this critical juncture in college football history.

Big-Name Schools on the Coaching Carousel

There are already seven openings in the Power Conferences. Penn State, Florida, and Oklahoma State have been in the mix for conference title runs in recent years. Virginia Tech competed for a National Title not that long ago. Arkansas is one of only 16 jobs in the most powerful conference in the country.

Not only are those jobs attractive, but one big move leads to dominoes falling elsewhere. It happened after the 2021 season. Lincoln Riley bolted for USC and Brian Kelly went to LSU, opening the door for searches at Oklahoma and Notre Dame, two other name-brand schools.

We may see a similar phenomenon this fall. Lane Kiffin and Eli Drinkwitz are named in the mix for the Florida job. If one leaves, that creates another SEC vacancy, keeping the Coaching Carousel spinning at a rapid rate.

Nobody Wants a First-Time Head Coach

Earlier this week, On3’s Pete Nakos reported that Florida will not consider hiring a coach from the Group of Six or a coordinator. There’s an obvious reason why the former applies at Florida. They just flamed out with a former Sun Belt coach. The latter is a point that applies across the Coaching Carousel.

For a time, hiring the hot-named coordinator wasn’t just an option; it was one of the best options. Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart got to be selective before he ultimately chose to return to his alma mater. The same could be said for long-time Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables.

College football fans demand instant gratification. There was a time when you could let a coach learn on the job. It worked out pretty well for Kentucky and Mark Stoops. In the transfer portal world, rosters get flipped quickly. That roster-building experience has become a prerequisite.

The unintended consequence is that a program that is further down on the Coaching Carousel, like a Virginia Tech or possibly Kentucky, will get a chance to take a swing at a hot-name coordinator that probably would not have been an attainable option in the past.

A Change in the Transfer Portal Date

The timing of the Coaching Carousel has changed, and it’s not just because more schools have fired their coaches before the end of the season. In recent years, administrators had days to find a replacement. Every day they wasted was another day their competition got to actively recruit the transfer portal.

In 2024, the transfer portal opened on Dec. 9. This year, the transfer portal will not open until Jan. 2. That’s not to say that back-channel deals will not be discussed in the month of December, but the delayed start to the portal affords some time to find the right guy before roster-building season kicks off.

National Champions Want to Return

As more jobs open, the list of qualified candidates stays the same. It’s a zero-sum game. A couple of coaches know this and are ready to jump at the opportunity. Jimbo Fisher and Ed Orgeron are hitting the interview circuit in October to let schools know that they’re ready to return to coaching. Even though things ended badly for both at their last stops, there are only three active coaches with National Championships. Those two both have rings, something their competitors can’t say.

Coaching Carousel Surprises are Inevitable

There is no order on the Coaching Carousel. Always keep your head on a swivel and expect the unexpected.

Nobody thought Brian Kelly would willingly leave his post at Notre Dame. Is Dabo Swinney tired of dealing with criticism at Clemson? Has Kelly created an untenable situation at LSU? It sounds crazy that coaches would decide to leave programs that can win National Championships, but crazy is never in short supply on the Coaching Carousel. Prepare for chaos.