A new summer Bracketology because Joe Lunardi doesn't stop

Early summer is college basketball’s offseason–the slowest time of the year for the sport and the conversations around it. That is, unless you’re Joe Lunardi, who lives and works year-round in ESPN’s bracketology bunker in Bristol. Lunardi may sneak off for a brief summer vacation at the family lakehouse, a coastal drive, or a nearby amusement park. Still, even then, the hardest-working bracketologist in bracketology is contemplating his next bracket. Lunardi is always bracketing.

Today, Lunardi revealed his latest work, a June update to the 2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament Bracketology on ESPN.com. In it, Lunardi made adjustments to his projected field of 68 based on all transfer portal movements and NBA draft decisions. The result is the latest NCAA Tournament projection, part of Lunardi’s monthly bracketology updates throughout the summer.

However, the new forecast isn’t all that exciting for Kentucky fans because Kentucky’s spot on the bracket went unchanged. As he did in his last model, Lunardi projects a No. 3 seed for the Wildcats, playing first and second-round games in St. Louis, part of the Midwest Region. Houston is the Midwest’s No. 1 seed and UConn is the No. 2, with regional games in Chicago before the Final Four in Indianapolis.

UNC Wilmington, the No. 15 seed, is Kentucky’s first opponent in Lunardi’s new projection, with the winner of Texas Tech and Texas A&M/SMU waiting in the next round. Should Kentucky make it to the second weekend in Chicago, UConn or Louisville is the likely Sweet 16 opponent for Kentucky.

More on ESPN Bracketology

To see Lunardi’s entire field of 68 projection, head over to ESPN Bracketology for the full bracket. Fourteen SEC teams made his tournament, including Florida, one of the four projected No. 1 seeds.