Advanced stats predict Kentucky football will reach the six-win mark

Oh, how quickly things can change…

It was less than a month ago that Kentucky football was manhandled by the Tennessee Volunteers, losing 54-36 at home in a game that dropped the Wildcats to 2-5 on the season (0-5 SEC). Mark Stoops‘ seat as head coach was hotter than it’d ever been before. The postseason was not even in the conversation. Fast forward three weeks, and Kentucky is on the verge of making a bowl game.

UK is now 5-5 with a 2-5 record in the SEC, winning three straight against Auburn, Florida, and Saturday’s 42-10 drumming of Tennessee Tech, a top 10 FCS program. The final two games on the regular season schedule won’t be easy by any means, but from a numbers perspective, UK is projected to win at least one of them.

Following Saturday’s results, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) was updated to reflect what happened over the college football weekend. Kentucky moved up six spots to 33rd in the country following the win over Tennessee Tech, with the FPI (which predicts team performance moving forward) giving the ‘Cats a 58.2 percent chance of reaching six wins this season. The metric also gives UK a 10.4 percent chance of winning both.

Kentucky will hit the road for its final two games, taking on Vanderbilt next weekend before battling Louisville the following Saturday. The Commodores checked in at 17th in the latest FPI update, while the Cardinals came in at 35th. Looking at ESPN’s SP+ Rankings, UK is ranked 43rd (a nine-spot increase from last week) with Vanderbilt and Louisville sitting at 18th and 27th, respectively. As a reminder, the SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.

Beating one (or both) of those nationally ranked opponents on the road is going to be much easier said than done for the ‘Cats. Vanderbilt (8-2) is coming off a bye week after sneaking past Auburn in overtime, 45-38, the week prior. Meanwhile, Louisville (7-3) has now dropped two straight, losing to California and Clemson in back-to-back weekends, both at home. The Cardinals will battle SMU on the road next weekend before hosting UK to close out the regular season.

There is no denying that Kentucky is playing its best football of the season right now — regardless of what you think about the competition. Quarterback Cutter Boley continues to improve every week, and the defense has allowed just 20 combined points during the three-game win streak. A trip to a bowl game is very much on the table for this year’s Wildcats.