Advanced stats rankings continue to trend in wrong direction for Kentucky

They say that bye weeks tend to come at the perfect time — there is no “perfect time” for this season’s Kentucky football team, though. After Saturday’s 35-14 loss to No. 12 Georgia, it feels like a miracle will be needed to right the Wildcats’ ship.

The advanced stats would agree, too. Kentucky is now 2-3 on the season and 0-3 in the SEC. Mark Stoops‘ program has lost its last two games by a combined score of 70-27. Winning an SEC game this season feels more and more like a long shot. ESPN‘s updated Football Power Index (FPI) is now predicting the Wildcats will win only four games this season. The model gives UK just a 15.8 percent chance of reaching the six-win threshold, a number that had been floating in the 40s just a couple of weeks ago. Kentucky dropped two spots to 50th in the latest FPI rankings.

ESPN‘s other advanced stats platform, the SP+ rankings, is even lower on the Wildcats. Kentucky dropped six spots to 64th in the country, with an offense that ranks 71st in the nation, a defense ranked 54th, and a special teams unit ranked ninth. Both the FPI and SP+ rankings have UK as the lowest-rated SEC program. The SP+ rankings say Kentucky has the fourth-hardest schedule in the country.

Saturday’s win sure did help Georgia, though. The Bulldogs jumped one spot in the FPI to 6th nationally, while the SP+ rankings moved them up six spots to 11th. Kentucky will face its second and final bye of the season this week, but a home matchup with Texas awaits on the other end. The Longhorns were upset by Florida on Saturday, dropping them to 8th in the FPI and 20th in the SP+ rankings.

To pour more salt in the wound, Kentucky once again checked in at dead-last (16 out of 16) in Michael Bratton’s (aka SEC Mike) updated SEC Power Rankings. Even Arkansas, which just fired its coach and replaced him with Bobby freaking Petrino, checked in ahead of the Wildcats at 15th. The football vibes are not high right now in Lexington.

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