Alabama's 3-point shooting won't be the end all be all against Kentucky

Now in his third season as the head coach at Alabama, Nate Oats has been all about embracing the new modern age of basketball.

He quickly established an identity for the Crimson Tide that was built around the idea of additional spacing and more 3-pointers. In his first two seasons at Alabama, Oats produced offenses that saw his teams take nearly half of all its shots from beyond the arc: 49 percent in 2019-20 (8th highest in the country, per KenPom) and then 46.5 percent in 2020-21 (18th highest).

The results were positive, too. Alabama went just 16-15 (8-10 in the SEC) in Oats’ first season but took a major leap in year two with a 26-7 final record (16-2 in the SEC) and a Sweet 16 appearance, marking the first season with more than 20 wins since the 2012-13 season. The Crimson Tide was hitting its outside looks at a roughly 35 percent clip in those two years, too. If ‘Bama got hot, the score would typically get out of hand very quickly.

This season, however, the 3-point shooting tendencies are actually costing the team more than it’s helping.

According to KenPom, Alabama is right in line with the last two seasons in terms of the percentage of its shots that come from beyond the arc — 46.8 percent, 17th highest in the country.

But the biggest difference this season from the previous two? Instead of converting at a 35 percent clip, that number has dipped down to 31.4 percent, which ranks 282nd in all of Division I. In 10 SEC games, that number has dropped down to a poor 28.3 percent. Alabama has fired up at least 30 3-pointers in 14 games season. Kentucky has not done so a single time.

What used to be the Tide’s biggest strength is now proving to be part of its downfall.

All that being said, Alabama isn’t living and dying by the 3-pointer as it had the last two seasons. Part of that is personnel, though. Last season, ‘Bama had four rotation players shoot higher than 37 percent from deep. Only one Crimson Tide player is doing that this season. Oats’ team has had to adapt to its talent, which has proved to include more scoring inside the arc.

Sure Alabama can still heat up from distance, as its hit double-digit triples in eight outings this season, but some of the team’s worst losses have come in spite of so many made shots from the perimeter. ‘Bama hit 10 3s in a loss to Memphis, 12 in a loss to Davidson, and 14 in a loss to Auburn. To further that point, two of the three most impressive wins on Alabama’s resume came against Baylor and Houston where the Crimson Tide made just seven 3s in each outing.

But even still, preventing Alabama from getting up good looks will be critical. The Crimson Tide hit 13 3s in its upset win over Gonzaga earlier this season. Bama is 4-0 this season when shooting 38 percent or better from deep, doing so against Gonzaga, Houston, Louisiana Tech, and Miami (FL).

“I think it’ll be huge,” UK guard Kellan Grady said of defending the perimeter. “Alabama has shown that they have the capability to beat some of the best of the best teams in our country this year. A large part of that and oftentimes what leads to their success is how well they shoot the ball from 3.

“They spread the ball out, they try to play with some pace and some urgency and get up a lot of 3s. Luckily for us, we’ve done a pretty good job I think this year, especially in the last month, month and a half, is guarding the 3-point line. So that’s been a focus for us.”

Alabama will play with plenty of pace as it tries to fly up and down the court for quick scoring opportunities. Kentucky should be up for the task though, considering the Wildcats are one of the fastest tempo teams in the country, more so than Alabama. In reality, UK might want to speed the Tide even more than usual.

Consider this: When fewer than 50 percent of Alabama’s shots in a single game come from the 3-point line, the team is 9-3 this season, per KenPom. When that number exceeds 50 percent? The record is just 5-5. Alabama is a more effective team this season when the offense is evenly distributed, even if the shots from deep aren’t falling at an elite clip.

Keeping Alabama outside of the paint and forcing the Tide to make outside jumpers might actually produce the winning formula for UK this time around.