What Analytics, Advanced Stats say about Kentucky vs. Florida
The Saturday night showdown between Florida and Kentucky is ground zero for hot takes. We’ve already seen love for the Gators pour in from various parts of the country, thanks to their impressive week one win over Utah. It’s time to set the takes aside. Let the advanced stats and analytics paint a clearer picture of the highly-anticipated Top 25 matchup between the Wildcats and the Gators.
ESPN Analytics
The Wildcats are ranked higher in SP+, ESPN’s forward-thinking analytics tool, coming in at No. 15, four spots ahead of Florida. When factoring in home-field advantage for the Gators, SP+ projects this game as a pick ’em, giving the Gators a slight 27-26.6 edge over Kentucky.
SP+ is not the only analytics tool ESPN uses. The four-letter network’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Wildcats a 45.2% chance to win Saturday in The Swamp.
CFB Graphs Advanced Stats
One Twitter user (@statsowar) uses advanced stats to break down every single college football matchup of the weekend. The graphic is a convenient way to consume and compare advanced stats for both teams. This calculation is much closer to the current spread, predicting a 29-24 win for Florida, giving the Wildcats a 35.5% chance to win on the road.
For fans of Free Money, Odds Shark was often used to see how their computer predictions stacked up with the spread. It’s not far off in week two. The Wildcats are currently 5.5-point underdogs. OddSshark predicts Florida to win 30.6-24.2
Betting Stats
- Florida is 0-4-1 ATS in last five games against Kentucky.
- Florida is 0-6 ATS in last six games as a favorite, tied for their third-longest non-cover streak since 1978.
- Kentucky is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog with 4 straight up wins.
- Kentucky is 2-5 ATS (1-6 SU) in its last seven games as a road underdog as an AP-ranked team.
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