Anatomy of an Upset: How Kentucky Can Stun Texas

We can all be honest with one another. Nobody expects Kentucky to beat Texas. It’s been more than two years since we’ve seen the Wildcats defeat an SEC foe at Kroger Field. It’s not just that they’re losing. Since the win at Ole Miss, Kentucky has trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter of every single game against a Power Conference foe.

However, this is a let-down spot for Texas. They just secured their first big win of the season, and it was in an emotional rivalry game. Arch Manning has not lived up to the hype, and he’s down two starting offensive linemen in an SEC road game at night. For the stars to perfectly align, here’s how Kentucky can potentially upset the Texas Longhorns.

Start Fast, Score Early

Like most Mark Stoops teams, this Kentucky football team is not built to play from behind. Stoops has not overcome a 14-point deficit since the Wildcats escaped with a victory over EKU in 2015.

Kentucky needs to land a haymaker early. Under Stoops, the Cats are 39-19 when they score on the opening possession and 51-25 when they score first. When Texas lost as a favorite at Florida, the Horns fell behind 10-0. They scrapped for a few more scores, but never could get over that rough start.

Everyone in BBN knows that Stoops struggles off a bye week. This team needs to start fast and set the tone, letting their opponent know they’re bringing the fight to them.

Win the Turnover Battle

South Carolina had two defensive touchdowns in consecutive plays. As Stoops said after the game, this team can’t overcome that kind of hurdle. Hell, there aren’t many college football teams that can.

You probably weren’t locked into Louisville’s upset of Miami, but Carson Beck did everything he could to ensure the Canes dropped their first loss of the season by throwing four picks. Even though the Cards didn’t turn those into points, those empty possessions added up.

This Texas defense can suffocate opponents. A turnover or two can give the offense exactly what they need, a short field to get into the end zone. Unfortunately, the Horns have a turnover margin of +6, the second best in the SEC.

Kentucky Must Effectively Run the Ball

Once Florida landed an early haymaker, the Gators took control of the game and ran between the tackles. Short gains eventually turned into explosives, rushing for 159 yards, nearly twice as many as any other Texas opponent this year.

That is the recipe for success for this Kentucky team: Drag Texas into the mud and possess the ball by leaning into its strength, the running game. If the Cats can give their best player, Seth McGowan, 20+ touches, they can stay in the fight and put real pressure on Texas in the second half.

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