BBNBA Finals Preview: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks to cap off historic season with a title

The only thing separating Shai Gilgeous-Alexander from completing one of the greatest individual (and team) seasons of all time is four more wins.

Gilgeous-Alexander, the NBA’s 2024-25 Most Valuable Player and leader of the 68-win Oklahoma City Thunder, is about to enter into the most important seven-game series of his life. Beginning Thursday in OKC, the Thunder will host the Indiana Pacers to kick off the 2025 NBA Finals. SGA and Co. are heavily favored to win the franchise’s first championship since 1979, back when the team was still located in Seattle.

Standing in the way is the best team in the Eastern Conference since the turn of the new year. The Indiana Pacers (which includes Isaiah Jackson, who has been out since the fall with a torn Achilles) might be the East’s four-seed, but there hasn’t been a better group — from a numbers perspective — in that conference since Jan. 1. Tyrese Haliburton has established himself as a superstar, while Pascal Siakam’s past championship experience is showing up exactly when Indiana needs it to. Siakam won Eastern Conference Finals MVP over Haliburton, who was equally as deserving of the award.

But there are dozens of reasons why the Thunder are the betting favorites to make this a short series. Gilgeous-Alexander is at the very top. Following a historic regular season that made him the first-ever Kentucky alum to win the league’s most sought-after individual honor, he’s been just as dangerous in the postseason.

Whether it’s getting to the free-throw line at will or nailing every mid-range jumper he sees, SGA has been nearly unguardable through 16 playoff games: 29.8 points, 6.9 assists, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.6 steals in 36.5 minutes per outing while shooting 47.1 percent from the field and 85.7 percent from the stripe. Despite being labeled as a “free throw merchant”, Gilgeous-Alexander’s 9.2 free throws attempted per game in the postseason ranks outside of the top 200 all-time (tied for 216th among all playoff performers throughout league history, to be exact), according to The Oklahoman. He averages more drives to the rim than any other player in the NBA — of course he’s going to get fouled more often than not. The reality is, no one can stay in front of him without being forced into a foul.

The SGA Landscape. What jumps out?https://t.co/QwIqg0yITx pic.twitter.com/3YQl0N6G9S

— Kirk Goldsberry (@kirkgoldsberry) June 4, 2025

SGA is the clear-cut favorite to win NBA Finals MVP. Having already received the league MVP and then being handed Western Conference Finals MVP, he’s a few more good games away from completing the trifecta. The last player to win the regular season MVP and Finals MVP in the same season was LeBron James, who did it back-to-back in 2012 and 2013. Who will Indiana throw at SGA in an attempt to slow him down?

Andrew Nembhard will likely draw the task early on, and that didn’t go well for the Pacers during their two regular-season matchups (both losses) to OKC. SGA dropped 45 points the first time and 33 more the second time out. Aaron Nesmith is playing on a bad ankle. Bennedict Mathurin is more scoring than defensive. Tyrese Haliburton is a traffic cone on that end. There are no easy answers for Indiana to defend SGA properly. Don’t be surprised if a zone defense breaks out.

The two teams play similar brands of basketball, but OKC is the souped-up version while Indiana is stock. The Thunder has the advantage at every position. You’re taking SGA over Haliburton. You’re taking Jalen Williams over Siakam (although we can debate that one). Chet Holgrem over Myles Turner. Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace over Nembhard, Nesmith, and Mathurin. And on and on and on. If Indiana can somehow manage to win four of seven games, it will go down as one of the largest upsets in Finals history.

And since we just mentioned him, let’s talk about Wallace for a minute. The second-year guard is playing like an eight-year veteran in these playoffs. The moment has not been too bright for the former Wildcat.

Wallace played at least 15 minutes in every game of the Western Conference Finals. Alongside Dort and Caruso, there isn’t a more threatening trio of defensive wings in the entire NBA. But Wallace is also knocking down threes when asked (15-46 in the playoffs, good for 32.6 percent) and not making mistakes (43 assists to just 12 turnovers). He will rotate the defensive assignment on Haliburton with Dort and Caruso while hopefully providing just enough on offense to stay afloat.

Drawing Haliburton is an important assignment for someone so young in this setting — Wallace has shown no signs of being overwhelmed, though. Here’s another fun stat for the Big Blue Nation: When SGA and Wallace share the floor in the postseason (14.6 MPG), OKC has posted a net rating of +6.9, one of the best marks in these playoffs among two-man duos, per the NBA. The Kentucky connection is working wonders.

This small-market NBA Finals showdown isn’t going to draw the eyes of a Los Angeles vs. New York matchup, but it’s going to be highly entertaining basketball. Both teams are averaging just over 117 points per game in the playoffs. OKC has one of the best defenses we’ve seen in recent history, but Indiana continues to find ways to overcome adversity.

Overcoming the league’s MVP and his deep crew of talented sidekicks will prove to be too much, though.

KSR’s NBA Finals Prediction: Thunder in 6

2025 NBA Finals schedule

• Game 1: Pacers at Thunder (Thu. June 5, 8:30 ET, ABC)
• Game 2: Pacers at Thunder (Sun. June 8, 8 ET, ABC)
• Game 3: Thunder at Pacers (Wed. June 11, 8:30 ET, ABC)
• Game 4: Thunder at Pacers (Fri. June 13, 8:30 ET, ABC)
• Game 5: Pacers at Thunder (Mon. June 16, 8:30 ET, ABC)*
• Game 6: Thunder at Pacers (Thu. June 19, 8:30 ET, ABC)*
• Game 7: Pacers at Thunder (Sun, June 22, 8 ET on ABC)*
  * if necessary

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