BBNBA Season in Review: Nerlens Noel

It’s hard to believe Nerlens Noel has played in the NBA for eight seasons, although he’s had a journeyman’s career: Drafted sixth by The Process-era 76ers in 2013 while recovering from a torn ACL at Kentucky, missed his entire first season, then was traded in his fourth to Dallas. He shined at Dallas enough to earn a 4-year, $70 million offer, but he declined it.

Had he accepted, Noel would have just finished the last year of his contract, which would have paid him roughly 18 million bucks to play pick-and-roll partner and rim protector next to Luka Doncic.

Instead of banking $70 million, Noel’s contracts in those four years amassed to approximately $12.8 million. 99% of American lives would be dramatically improved with $12.8 million, but 100% of those same Americans would be bitter to miss out on the extra 58.

Despite missing on a big payday, Nerlens has steadily improved over the past couple of seasons while playing on teams that exceeded expectations and made the Playoffs. Here are the numbers and a recap of a terrific ’21 campaign from Noel and a look at how his free agency may play out.

Numbers

Season averages (per game): 5.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.2 blocks

Playoff averages (per game): 4.6 points, 4 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks

Shooting splits (reg. season): 61.4% FG, 71.4% FT

More (extra & interesting) stats: Below

This past season

Those per-game averages of 5 & 6 would never jump off the page to a casual fan, but this is a scenario where the advanced numbers help tell the whole story with Noel. There were too many impressive Noel stats from this past season that I couldn’t have fit them above.

So here’s a rundown of his statistical accolades in 2020-21:

Nerlens Noel was third in the NBA in total blocks (141) and blocks per game (2.2), and was second in block% (8.7), which measures the percentage of opponent shots a player blocks while in the game. He was third in Defensive Win Shares (3.6), second in Defensive Rating (101.2), and he led the NBA in the most important stat of all: Defensive Box Plus/Minus.

Joking there, but while a lot of these stats are strange and specific, being at or near the top in most of them reflects a great defender.

Noel didn’t play the number of minutes during the games he did play to qualify as a serious Defensive Player of the Year candidate, but statistically, he was just as good as the other contenders when he did play.

Looking ahead…

Noel’s one-year, $5 million deal is up. The deal initially looked like a friendly gesture from World Wide Wes and Kenny Payne to a former ‘Cat, but he proved to be worth much more than the small deal paid him. If the Knicks want to keep Noel around, they’ll have to give him a raise.

A lot of New York’s rotation players played under expiring or one-year deals. The future of most of the roster is up in the air aside from the young guys and Randle, who’s locked up for another season. Noel proved worthy of a longer deal, but whether or not he returns depends on which direction the Knicks want to go.

They could use the excess cap space and other assets to try to cash in on another team’s superstar for the hundredth time in the last 10 years — or they may not see the logic in signing Noel when they have another younger, bigger and more athletic rim runner in Mitchell Robinson.

He may not return to New York for a second season, but regardless, he’s proved himself as a productive role player and high-level defender. He was solid in a weird role as Steven Adams’ second banana in Oklahoma City in 2020 and he came on as a ruthless dunk-stopping block machine in New York.

I would expect similar success again in Madison Square Garden or at his next (and fifth) stop.