Bettor's Guide to the 1st Day of the NCAA Tournament (Afternoon Slate)

With the excitement that legalized sports gambling could be on the horizon for the state of Kentucky, I think everybody who is interested should start to get more comfortable with the basics of sports betting. Know what the spread means and how best to navigate making a bet, if you so choose. So let’s go over what you are looking for:

1. Every game will have a team with a plus sign or a minus sign next to them. The team with the minus sign is the FAVORITE and the team with the plus sign is the UNDERDOG.
2. To win a bet it depends on who you bet. If you bet the favorite, that team has to win the game by the amount shown next to their team name or more. For instance, Kentucky is a 4-point favorite against Providence. If you bet Kentucky, they have to win by more than 4 points. If they win by exactly 4 points, you would get your money back.
3. If you bet the underdog, that team can lose the game and you still win your bet. All that underdog has to do is lose by less than the points next to their name. So Providence can lose by 1-3 points and you would still win your bet if you bet the Friars.

So now that you got the basics down, let’s break down today’s 16 games. Can you make a bet legally yet? Absolutely not. But it still can be fun to prepare as if you can and gear up for legal sports gambling for the 2024 NCAA Tournament!

12 – 3 PM GAMES

12:15 pm (Birmingham)
#8 Maryland vs. #9 West Virginia (-2)
Breakdown: This is a very tough game to predict as both teams have been up and down all year long. Maryland is a little better on the offensive end and WVU on the defensive end. In games like this, I tend to lean toward the underdog since you are getting points. Plus Maryland has been really good against the spread this year, going 20-11.
BTI PICK: Maryland (+2)

12:40 pm (Orlando)
#4 Virginia (-5) vs. #13 Furman
Breakdown: I know this is a popular upset pick on brackets as fans still can’t get over the UMBC debacle years ago and UVA has struggled in the last couple of years. But here is why I like the Cavs here. Furman’s entire goal this year was making the tournament as they lost in the conference title game last year on a buzzer-beater. They were on a mission and they accomplished their mission. Virginia is in this tournament for more. They are back to being a smothering defense and if they can piece together enough points, I think this is a double-digit win. Furman is a team that outscores its opponents and they haven’t seen a team like Virginia.
BTI PICK: Virginia (-5)

1:40 pm (Sacramento)
#7 Missouri vs. #10 Utah State (-1.5)
Breakdown: Here’s what you need to know. The Mountain West conference is 5-17 in the NCAA Tournament in the last 10 years. They went 0-4 last year. And while I am not high on Missouri, history has shown time and again the MWC flops here. Now on the flip side, Mizzou does not defend the 3-pointer well and Utah State shoots a bunch of them and shoots them well. If Mizzou can defend even a little, I think they win outright here.
BTI PICK: Missouri (+1.5)

2:00 pm (Des Moines)
#1 Kansas (-22) vs. #16 Howard
Breakdown: Howard only played 1 Power 5 school this year and it was Kentucky. And they lost by 32. And Kansas is way better than us. As long as the Jayhawks don’t have a hangover from their Big 12 title game beatdown, I think they win this game by 27-30 points. Jalen Wilson is terrific. Howard turns the ball over at a rapid pace and doesn’t defend the three at all. Covering this spread is all about Kansas. If they are sharp, they roll big.
BTI PICK: Kansas (-22)

2:45 pm (Birmingham)
#1 Alabama (-24) vs. #16 Texas A&M CC
Breakdown: Obviously Alabama is going to win. But the point is if they can cover. And I don’t think they will. Bama did not cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 regular season games. And TAMCC does a couple of things that help underdogs cover. First, they knock down their foul shots and get to the line a bunch. Second, they get a lot of offensive rebounds, meaning second-chance points. Alabama gives up a lot of offensive rebounds too. I think this spread will come down to the wire but the Islanders pull it out with some cheap baskets at the end.
BTI PICK: Texas A&M CC (+24)

3-7 PM GAMES

3:10 pm (Orlando)
#5 San Diego St (-5.5) vs. #12 Charleston
Breakdown: Charleston has one of the most dynamic offenses in the country as they take as many 3-pointers per game as any team. But SDSU only allows 28.7% from three for the year. So I anticipate a lot of bad shots from a Charleston team that only beat 1 NCAA Tournament team this year (Kent State). I think they picked on bad teams all year who couldn’t defend them. The Aztecs can and I see a double-digit win.
BTI PICK: San Diego St (-5.5)

4:10 pm (Sacramento)
#2 Arizona (-14.5) vs #15 Princeton
Breakdown: You know how Charleston only beat 1 NCAA Tournament team this year? Princeton only PLAYED 1 team in the NCAA Tournament and lost by 6 to Iona. I also think Arizona is cooking right now, Princeton had to travel across the country, and there is a little extra motivation after last year’s flameout in the 2nd round. I think the Wildcats are SHARP SHARP SHARP and hammer Princeton. With that said, don’t let this game be close with 10 minutes to go.
BTI PICK: Arizona (-14.5)

4:30 pm (Des Moines)
#8 Arkansas (-2) vs. #9 Illinois
Breakdown: Tough, tough game to predict because both teams have more talent than their record shows. I think the potential is higher for the Hogs so if I had to bet it (which I don’t and won’t) I would go with Arkansas. One stat to consider is Illinois hoists up a lot of perimeter shots and Arkansas defends that well.
BTI PICK: Arkansas (-2)