Bio Blast: Auburn Tigers

Kentucky’s slow start in September has only gotten worse in October. After falling in a hole early, UK backed that up with an 0-3 record in the second month of the season. The Cats were blown out by Georgia and Tennessee and let one slip away against Texas. Is there anyway to salvage this season now? We’ll find out in November.

The calendar will turn on Saturday with five games awaiting in the final month of the season. Two of those games will be against ranked teams. Two more will be against SEC teams near the bottom of the standings with UK. The other is a top-10 FCS squad that is dropping fiftyburgers left and right. Things are not going to get any easier for Kentucky (2-5, 0-5) as they are just two losses away from being eliminated from bowl contention with five games to play.

We’ve entered the biggest two-game stretch of the season. Kentucky is heading down to the loveliest village on the Plains this weekend to play at Auburn (4-4, 1-4) for just the fourth time in the last 30 years. The Tigers have a very talented roster but have came of short of expectations this season.

Some major offensive issues

Expectations were high for Hugh Freeze‘s third offense at Auburn after this program spent big in the transfer portal following consecutive top-10 high school recruiting classes. The Tigers had one of the best wide receiver units on paper in college football and seemed to have an offensive line that could win the Joe Moore Award. The program also added two power conference transfers at quarterback. All signs pointed to a jump on offense.

That jump has not occurred. Auburn has only clearly been better than Kentucky and South Carolina on offense in the SEC throughout the season. This passing game is not taking advantage of the NFL talent at wide receiver.

• Passing Success Rate: 37.3% (No. 119 overall)
• EPA/Dropback: -0.15 (No. 118 overall)
• Yards Per Dropback: 5.34 (No. 126 overall)

The Tigers have gone over 200 passing yards just three times this season and rank No. 135 in sack rate allowed (12.3%). Only Ball State is worse in FBS college football. This offense cannot protect, and the quarterback has had issues distributing the football to the playmakers. Freeze finally made a change against Arkansas by benching Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold for Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels. The backup led the Tigers on multiple field goal drives but failed to get the ball in the endzone. Auburn scored 33 points in a game with just one offensive touchdown due to a pick-six and six field goals. The Tigers have scored two offensive touchdowns or less in every SEC game this season.

Tailback Jeremiah Cobb (117 carries, 717 yards, 6.1 yards per rush) has been one of the best tailbacks in the SEC this season, and is a problem when the ball is in his hands. The only issue is that Auburn had not been force-feeding him. That changed in the win over Arkansas with 28 carries. UK should expect a heavy workload from Cobb.

Auburn has also gotten 465 non-sack rushing yards from the quarterback position this season. The Tigers have been a top-25 rushing attack throughout the season and will likely lean on that this Saturday. Freeze is refusing to name a starter this week but we know how this offense will choose to attack.

The Tigers can run the football but struggle to score points.

An elite run defense

If you are a run-first offense playing Auburn, you could be in for a long day. The Tigers have multiple draft picks in the front and have been outstanding at fitting the run all season. It will be a long day at the office if you have a heavy run plan against the Tigers.

• EPA/rush: -0.27 (No. 1 overall)
• Success Rate: 27% (No. 2 overall)
• Non-Sack Yards Per Rush: 3.08 (No. 1 overall)

South Alabama and Texas A&M are the only teams to go over 100 rushing yards against Auburn this season. This defense ranks No. 6 nationally in tackles for loss (58) and gets ahead of the chains consistently against the run game. However, that aggressive play style has left some holes in coverage.

Auburn’s defense enters this week ranking No. 111 in passing success rate (45.75%). Every offense but Baylor and Missouri finished the game against the Tigers with a completion percentage north of 60. Success can be found through the air.

Over the last three games, Kentucky has morphed into a pass-first offense with Cutter Boley being asked to dropback 40-plus times per game. The Wildcats will attack Auburn’s biggest defensive weakness. That should lead to multiple scoring opportunities for the road team.

Auburn is not good in this spot

Auburn is 4-9 against the spread (ATS) as a home favorite under Hugh Freeze. The Tigers failed to cover big numbers against Ball State and South Alabama earlier this season. For the first time since Week 3, the Tigers will be laying points at home. Kentucky is currently a 10.5-point underdog. Plenty of big underdogs have played well at Jordan-Hare Stadium recently.

California (+12), Arkansas (+2), Oklahoma (+1), and Vanderbilt (+7) all won outright as underdogs against Auburn in 2024. New Mexico State (+26) did the same in 2023 with a stunning 31-10 victory. Auburn has not been good as a home favorite under Freeze.

Will that trend continue on Saturday? Kentucky is 8-5 ATS as a road underdog since 2021.