Bio Blast: Mississippi State Bulldogs

Kentucky will hit the road for the third time this season in Week 10 to face their permanent SEC West crossover opponent in what will likely be the final seasons with divisions in the Southeastern Conference. Mississippi State is on its fourth head coach in the last seven seasons, and things are not going well for former defensive coordinator Zach Arnett in Starkville.

However, there is still a lot of ball to be played in November. At 4-4 (1-4), the Bulldogs have a chance to close the season strong with three home games over the next four weeks including a Week 12 matchup with Southern Miss. Both teams enter the matchup following some disappointing results, but there is still time to salvage the season.

Let’s take a closer look at Arnett’s first team at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have undergone a huge scheme change on offense that has been limited by some unfortunate injury luck. However, the fall off by the defense is the biggest surprise in Starkville.

Drastic scheme change is causing expected growing pains

The biggest talking point surrounding Mississippi State football in the offseason was that Zach Arnett decided to move away from Mike Leach’s Air Raid and install a different system in Starkville. Former Central Michigan and Appalachian State offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay is in his first season calling the plays in Starkville.

As expected, this offense is going through some growing pains.

After throwing for 10,689 yards and 82 touchdowns in his first three seasons as a starting quarterback in the SEC, Will Rogers is putting up career-low numbers in completion percentage (61.4%) and passing success rate (37.6%). The senior has hit on more big plays (career-high 7.5 yards per attempt), but the efficiency has taken a major dip.

The Bulldogs enter Week 10 ranked No. 107 in passing success rate (37.4%). In year one under Barbay, the passing attack has been an issue. That was the case even before Rogers got hurt in a Week 7 win over Western Michigan.

Former Vanderbilt transfer Mike Wright has started the last two games. The senior is running an offense that has only scored two touchdowns in eight quarters. The efficiency (33.9% passing success rate) has taken an even bigger dip with Wright in the lineup.

Due to all of these issues, Mississippi State has had a ton of problems. The Bulldogs likely wanted to be a run-heavy operation with senior tailback Jo’Quavious Marks but he has been limited by injuries and just missed the Auburn game.

Outside of a 30-point explosion against South Carolina powered by the passing game, this offense has not scored more than 24 points in regulation against a power conference defense yet this season. State has scored 17 points or less in four consecutive SEC games. Offense is a problem for the Bulldogs right now.

Strong linebacker duo

Mississippi State’s offensive problems are well-known and expected. The defense needed to be a strength for the Bulldogs in 2023, but this unit returned only three of its top 10 tackles from 2023. Matt Brock was promoted to defensive coordinator, and there have been some struggles.

The Bulldogs enter Saturday’s contest ranked No. 100 in success rate, No. 102 in passing EPA/play, and dead last in the SEC in points per scoring opportunity allowed. Mississippi State has a bottom half of the SEC defense after five conference games. Most notably, the Bulldogs have some issues at the line of scrimmage in this 3-3-5 scheme. However, they have a pair of erasers at off-ball linebacker.

Jett Johnson and Nathaniel Watson are both super seniors back for their final season of college football. The duo combined to record 228 tackles, 20.5 tackles for loss, and 56 pressures in 2022. Through eight games this season, Johnson and Watson have recorded 164 tackles, 18 tackles for loss, and 42 pressures. Both players are in the running for All-SEC honors.

Mississippi State has issues on defense, but linebacker play is not one of them. If this unit were to make a game-changing play or two in the matchup against Kentucky on Saturday night, odds are that Johnson or Watson is the reason why.

Turnovers are a problem

Mississippi State is currently at even in the turnover margin. But that could be considered flawed since the Bulldogs produced half of their 10 takeaway in a Week 2 overtime win over Arizona. On offense, ball security has been a big issue.

State has lost at least one turnover in five consecutive games. That streak got started with six total turnovers in consecutive losses to South Carolina and Alabama. The Bulldogs are ahead of only Vanderbilt in the SEC in turnover lost (10).

This is a football that is not good enough to beat many power conference teams when giving away possessions. Outside of one big performance, the defense has struggled to create extra possessions. Takeaways could play a big role on Saturday night at Davis-Wade Stadium.