Bio Blast: Tennessee Volunteers

Kentucky’s slow start in September has only gotten worse in October. After seeing games on the road against South Carolina and Georgia slip away from them in the first half, the Cats got off the mat and outplayed Texas everywhere but the scoreboard. This football team has shown improvement but you are what your record says you are. Another tough challenge has arrived in Week 9.

Kentucky (2-4, 0-4) will host No. 17 Tennessee (5-2, 2-2) under the lights at Kroger Field on Saturday night. The Cats will be playing a third consecutive game against a ranked opponent. Once again, the long home losing streak (10 consecutive losses against power conference foes) and SEC losing streak (9 consecutive conference losses) are on the line. Is this the week those get snapped or do we see them extend?

Styles typically make fights. After playing a Texas team that plays into Kentucky’s strengths, the Cats will face the opposite this week against a Vols squad that wants to hit the tempo gas button on offense and play aggressive pressure defense.

Josh Heupel has another top-10 offense

After not having his contract renewed by Oklahoma after a long tenure following the 2014 season, Josh Heupel bounced-back quickly. The former national championship quarterback re-emerged in power conference football in 2016 at Missouri and installed his veer and shoot spread tempo scheme. Drew Lock would throw for nearly 4,000 yards and 44 touchdowns on a top-20 offense for Heupel in 2017. That big year got the play-calling head coach his first head coaching gig.

In three years at UCF, Heupel won 28 games with two double-digit win seasons and a pair of top-25 finishes. The Knights made a New Year’s Six Bowl in year one. During his tenure, UCF posted three consecutive top-15 offenses. The production translated to the SEC.

In his first two years at Tennessee with Hendon Hooker at quarterback, the Vols posted a pair of top-10 offenses. This unit scored at least 39 points per game each season as the league struggled to stop this attack. That started to go away post-Hooker as the Vols finished outside the top 15 in 2023 and 2024 after Heupel posted five consecutive top-15 offenses, according to ESPN’s SP+ rankings. Well, the top-10 offense is back in 2025.

The Vols are scoring points and accumulating a boatload of yards through seven games in 2025. This offense is currently a top-five unit.

• Success Rate: 50.6% (No. 8 overall)
• Yards Per Dropback: 8.84 (No. 11 overall)
• 20+ Yards Plays: 42 (No. 14 overall)
• Points Per Drive: 3.13 (No. 15 overall)
• EPA/play: 0.19 (No. 16 overall)
• Yards Per Play: 6.81 (No. 19 overall)

New starting quarterback Joey Aguilar (64.6% completion rate, 8.6 yards per attempt) is averaging 278.3 passing yards per game. The former App State quarterback has gone over 300 yards in two SEC games. The Vols are rushing for 200 yards per game with tailbacks DeSean Bishop, Star Thomas, and Peyton Lewis scoring 16 total touchdowns and averaging 168 yards per game on 6.2 yards per rush. Wideouts Chris Brazzell II, Braylon Staley, and Mike Matthews are each over 400 receiving yards through seven games. Brazell is on pace to become Tennessee’s first 1,000-yard receiver since Jalin Hyatt won the Biletnikoff Award as a unanimous first-team All-American in 2022.

Tennessee is humming on offense. Alabama has been the only defense to hold the Vols under 34 points. Heupel’s spread scheme presents some difficult challenges and usually dictates how games are played. The Vols create track meets.

The defense has regressed in a big way

Perhaps the biggest reason why Tennessee made the College Football Playoff last year was not on offense. The Tennessee defense was clearly the best unit on the team last season, and became the program’s best defense since Philip Fulmer was roaming the sidelines. The Vols won a lot of games with defense by holding the first seven power conference foes on the schedule to less than 20 points. Every power conference offense has scored at least 26 points against Tennessee this season with each SEC team clearing 30 points.

Tennessee lost just two draft picks from last year’s unit, and returned 13 of 23 players who played 200-plus snaps this season, but no unit in the league has dropped off more than this one in 2025. After ranking top-10 in numerous metrics in 2024, the Vols have fallen off a cliff in 2025.

• Points Per Drive: 2.49 (No. 89 overall)
• 20+ Yard Plays: 35 (No. 107 overall)
• Success Rate: 44.1% (No. 115 overall)
• EPA/Play: 0.09 (No. 119 overall)
• Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 81.48% (No. 135 overall)

Tennessee gives up a ton of explosive plays, is the worst power conference defense in the red zone, and consistently falls behind the chains. The defense is missing 12 tackles per game. This group is getting takeaways (12) but is losing just about everywhere else.

The defense has been a massive issue on Rocky Top this season.

Tennessee totally owns this series

Saturday will be the 121st meeting between these two long-time SEC programs. Tennessee owns a commanding 85-26-9 series lead. The Vols famously won 26 in a row from 1985-2010 but have won 11 of 13 since the Wildcats snapped the streak in 2011. Both recent UK wins have occurred at home (2011, 2017) but Mark Stoops is just 2-10 against Tennessee and 2-9-1 against the spread (ATS) with both covers occurring in Knoxville.

Even when UK has won a game at home in this series, they needed a heroic two-minute drive from Stephen Johnson to defeat a Tennessee team that went winless in conference play. This series has taught us a few things — the Vols typically exceed expectations in this matchup and the Cats usually always come up short of expectations in this matchup.

The Vols are 25-8 ATS in this series over the last three-plus decades. In the last 11 meetings in Lexington, the Vols are 9-2 outright and 10-1 ATS. The orange team nearly always plays well on the road.