Bio Blast: Vanderbilt Commodores

Kentucky is back on the road for the first time since defeating Auburn on the Plains to begin November. A lot of good has happened for this football program since that win. The Cats are now looking to record their biggest victory of season in Week 13.

Vanderbilt (8-2, 5-2) is having an historic season with a Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback. The Commodores are just two wins away from securing a bid to the College Football Playoff. UK will be trying to play spoiler at FirstBank Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

KSR’s first close look at Clark Lea‘s fifth Vanderbilt team has arrived.

A dominant offense

Who is the best offense in the SEC? That is up for discussion as the league has produced a handful of top-15 units this season. Vanderbilt has a real case for the top spot. This offense is posting some outstanding numbers in 2025.

• Points Per Drive: 3.75 (No. 2 nationally)
• Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 78.72% (No. 2 nationally)
• Success Rate: 50.6% (No. 4 nationally)
• Yards Per Play: 7.25 (No. 4 nationally)
• Third Down Conversions: 53.33% (No. 5 nationally)

The Commodores have scored more than 30 points in five power conference games this season. This offense has gone north of 200 rushing yards five times and has surpassed 300 passing yards four times. This attack is balanced and can beat defenses in a myriad of ways.

Offensive coordinator Tim Beck and senior offensive advisor Jerry Kill crafted this methodical spread option offense at New Mexico State and plugged in junior college transfer Diego Pavia to run it. This trio is posting big numbers in year four togethers. Pavia has career-high numbers in completion rate (70%) and yards per attempt (8.9). The quarterback is on pace to throw for 2,928 yards and rush for 736 yards. Pavia has accumulated 28 total touchdowns entering this final two week stretch and is fresh off consecutive 300-yard passing performances where he gave Vandy a chance to win in consecutive shootouts.

This offense is flat out awesome. Tight end Eli Stowers (51 receptions on 72 targets for 669 yards) and tailback Makhilyn Young (9.9 yards per rush) are both dynamic skill players who each followed Kill, Beck, and Pavia to Nashville from New Mexico State. The offensive line is very unique with how it switches guards and tackles on nearly a per snap basis and will use a ton of unbalanced looks. Vanderbilt has a system and they have maximized it.

Pavia is the star in a unique scheme that no one has really been able to solve this season. The Commodores can play in a grinder or they can go blow-for-blow in a shootout. This is one of the best offenses in college football.

The defense is one of the worst in the SEC

Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea took over defensive play-calling duties in 2024 but decided to hand those off to defensive coordinator Steve Gregory this season. The Commodores have closed the gap with the rest of the league on this side of the football but this is still a unit with some issues.

This is one of the worst defenses in the SEC.

The Commodores rank No. 89 nationally in points per drive (2.43). Opposing offenses have accumulated 19 passing touchdowns and just four interceptions on a 67.3 percent completion rate. Alabama, Texas, and Auburn each threw for over 300 yards against the Commodores. Alabama, Auburn, and Texas posted a season-high yards per play number in a conference game against this Vanderbilt defense. The Commodores have some issues.

Vandy plays downhill and is not afraid to send numbers into the line of scrimmage. That has led to some good run defense and havoc creation (No. 40 nationally in tackles for loss per game) but has also opened them up for coverage busts in the backend. Consecutive SEC offenses have gone for over 30 points against this group. LSU had one of its best offensive games of the year against the Commodores. Each of those offenses rank towards the bottom of the SEC.

This defense is missing 11.1 tackles per game. When the ball is in space, Vandy has some problems getting ballcarriers to the ground. The Commodores have produced just one takeaway over the last four games. This is a group that is trending in the wrong direction heading into the biggest two-week stretch of the season.

Expect a shortened game

Vanderbilt’s offense is putting up some big numbers, but they are doing most of it on a play-by-play basis. The raw numbers don’t look as great when compared to some others because of play style. The Commodores use a methodical approach.

Vandy ranks No. 126 nationally in offensive snaps (612). That’s 61.2 offensive plays per game. No one in the SEC is playing at a slower pace. Only five power conference programs play slower than the Commodores. If this team does not score explosive play touchdowns, possessions will be long and the game clock will shrink.

Kentucky is playing faster than normal this season (68 plays per game) but they are also a team that values time of possession and moves at a methodical pace on offense. Possessions could be very limited in this game on Saturday.

What does that mean? Any mistake or stop will be magnified. Turnovers, penalties, and red zone possessions will matter more in this game than they do in others. UK has been good at avoiding penalties (No. 19 nationally). Vanderbilt has not (No. 89 nationally). However, the Wildcats have lost 17 turnovers in 10 games with five multi-turnover games in seven SEC outings. The Commodores have lost only nine turnovers in 10 games with just one multi-turnover game in SEC play. Meanwhile, both offenses have been good in the red zone but Kentucky’s red zone defense (No. 104 in touchdown rate) has been a big weakness.

Do not be surprised if one of these areas decides the game on Saturday.