Bio Blast: Vanderbilt Commodores

SEC play has finally arrived, and Week 4 is a revenge spot for Kentucky. In the first road trip of the 2023 season, Kentucky will play an SEC opener on the road with the rare September trip to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt. The Wildcats will face a program that is reeling.

Third-year head coach Clark Lea began the season at SEC Media Days in Nashville by telling everyone that getting to a bowl game is the goal for Vanderbilt football in year three. Going 2-2 in non-conference play was not the way the Commodores were going to get there. Vandy now needs a 4-4 record in SEC play after dropping consecutive road trips to Wake Forest and UNLV. Kentucky could see a desperate football team on Saturday afternoon at FirstBank Stadium.

Vandy has an explosive passing game, but a struggling defense and ground attack is holding this SEC team back entering a brutal stretch that will include seven SEC games in eight weeks.

Explosive throw game

AJ Swann is back at quarterback for his sophomore season after starting six games as a true freshman before suffering an injury. The pocket passer has some accuracy (57.1% completion rate) and efficiency (41.5% passing success rate) concerns, but the Georgia native is hitting on big plays. Swann has 13 completions of 25-plus yards through four games this season. Vanderbilt is averaging 14.0 yards per completion. The offense can create explosives.

According to PFF’s data, Swann leads college football in completions (14) of 20-plus air yards. The next closest player in the ACC is Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman (nine). Vandy’s offense goes vertical play hunting (24.1% of pass attempts travel at least 20 yards) with five of these throws ending in the endzone. Kentucky’s defense must be ready for the big play.

Will Sheppard is a true No. 1 receiver who ranks third in the SEC in targets per game (9.5) and leads the league in touchdown receptions (six). However, the true senior has been more of a short-to-intermediate target through four games. The same goes for slot receiver Jayden McGowan who is averaging 8.2 targets per game. Swann’s top targets have posted a combined 48 receptions for 609 yards through three games for offensive coordinator Joey Lynch. However, Swann has another favorite target on vertical concepts.

Nashville (Tenn.) CPA product London Humphreys was a huge local recruiting win for Vanderbilt. The top-500 recruit was a high school track star who broke Jalen Ramsey’s 200-meter dash record in Tennessee with a time of 21.73 seconds. That speed has shown up on the field in year one.

On 11 targets of 20-plus air yards, Humphreys has reeled in six receptions for 229 yards and three touchdowns. No. 83 is a true field stretcher that Kentucky must be aware of at all times.

Vandy looks to connect on haymakers via the passing game.

Another bad defense

Clark Lea’s first defense at Vanderbilt finished No. 118 in points per drive (3.07) and No. 120 in yards per play (6.75). After that season, Michigan hired away Vanderbilt defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. Former BYU and Virginia defensive coordinator Nick Howell took his place, and the results did not get any better with the Commodores finishing No. 122 in points per drive (2.95) and No. 128 in yards per play (6.95).

The Commodores needed to show some proof of concept on defense in year three. We have not seen that in the first four games of the season.

Vandy enters Week 4 ranked No. 90 in points per drive (2.50) and No. 84 in yards per play (5.60). According to ESPN’s SP+ rankings, the Commodores have yet to see a top-35 offense. UNLV (No. 89) and Hawai’i (No. 106) each put up big passing numbers against the Commodores.

Howell’s defense currently ranks No. 12 in success rate, No. 12 in EPA, No. 13 in line yards per rush, and No. 14 in havoc rate among SEC teams. That is not a good place to be entering conference play. The Commodores have some legitimate personnel issues at cornerback, and the run defense was borderline atrocious against Wake Forest (302 non-sack rushing yards, 6.9 yards per rush, 10 rushes of 10-plus yards).

Defense is a problem for Lea’s program again in year three.

Vanderbilt misses Ray Davis

Ray Davis rushed for over 1,000 yards for Vanderbilt last season. The redshirt senior had three consecutive 100-plus yard games in SEC play helping the Commodores beat Kentucky. That strong play has continued in Lexington.

Over the last seven games dating back to last year, Ray Davis has accounted for 889 yards from scrimmage with seven total touchdowns. The SEC transfer is leading a Kentucky tailback trio that has rushed for 379 yards on 7.0 yards per rush with 11 runs of 10-plus yards through three games this season. Vanderbilt is not getting similar production.

The Commodores tailback trio of Sedrick Alexander, Chase Gillespie, and Patrick Smith has rushed for 343 yards through four games on 4.0 yards per rush with nine runs of 10-plus yards. Vandy’s traditional run game has a very high stuff rate (22.4%) and only produced 61 yards on 23 attempts in a loss to UNLV on Saturday night. Joey Lynch has had to get the wide receiver and tight end room involved (11 carries, 44 yards) to help boost the ground game.

Vanderbilt has been a one-dimensional offense and that is putting a lot of pressure on AJ Swann.