Bowl Rundown: Kentucky has muddy postseason picture

Kentucky was in the driver’s seat this time last week when it came to the SEC’s “Pool of Six” selection process. That is no longer the case after the Cats dropped a home game to Vanderbilt.

KSR is back to take another look at bowl scenarios, and right now, there appear to be numerous options on the table for Kentucky heading into the last two weeks of the season.

SEC is still projected to get 4 teams into Playoff & New Year’s Six

In Tuesday’s College Football Playoff (CFP) Top 25, Georgia was again the No. 1 team and is well on its way to a second consecutive playoff bid. However, some other SEC teams are in contention for some premium spots.

Tennessee (9-1) held firm at No. 5 overall and will have a great case for a spot in the playoff at the end of the season. The Vols should be double-digit favorites in every remaining game and could very well finish the year at 11-1. After a road win over Arkansas, LSU (8-2) sits at No. 6 overall and should be in great shape to grab either the Sugar Bowl (SEC champ or highest-ranked SEC team) or Orange Bowl (highest-ranked SEC or Big Ten team) bid.

Alabama (8-2) is up one spot to No. 8 after Saturday’s win over Ole Miss. The Crimson Tide will be heavy favorites against Austin Peay and Auburn at home to finish the year at 10-2. That should be enough to get Bama into the Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl depending on where LSU is ranked after the SEC Championship Game.

Ole Miss (8-2) fell to No. 14 after the home loss to Alabama. The Rebels have tough games remaining against Arkansas (road) and Mississippi State (home). Even if Ole Miss loses out, Kiffin’s team is the heavy, heavy favorite to land in Orlando for the Citrus Bowl.

The SEC has gotten four teams into the New Year’s Six before (2018), and it will likely happen again this postseason.

That gets us to the pool of six and that’s where things get tricky.

Kentucky must keep an eye on Florida, Mississippi State

Following UK’s home loss to Vanderbilt, the Wildcats are likely to finish SEC play at 3-5. Following Florida‘s home win over South Carolina, the Gators are likely to finish SEC play at 4-4. Despite owning the head-to-head, Kentucky could see Florida get the first pick in the selection process.

However, it is also worth noting that Florida has to travel to Florida State on Thanksgiving Friday and will likely be a road underdog for that rivalry matchup. The most likely record for first-year Florida coach appears to be 7-5 (4-4) as the Gators are a two-touchdown road favorite over Vanderbilt this weekend.

That can make things messy as it is not clear who would pick first. A collaboration might have to occur if Kentucky was able to get to 7-5. However, Mississippi State is a dark horse.

The Bulldogs enter Saturday at 6-4 (3-4) with a home game with East Tennessee State this weekend before traveling to Ole Miss on Thanksgiving night. A 7-5 finish feels most likely, but an upset over Ole Miss could give Mississippi State some attractive bowl selection. Back-to-back losses by Ole Miss starting with Arkansas this weekend could open up a Citrus Bowl opportunity for the Bulldogs.

After that, South Carolina (6-4, 3-4) has a game remaining with Tennessee and Clemson. A 6-6 record seems likely. Arkansas (5-5, 2-4) plays Ole Miss and Missouri over the next two weekends to get to bowl eligibility. Missouri (4-6, 2-5) hosts New Mexico State on Saturday night before getting a crack at Arkansas at home on Thanksgiving Friday for bowl eligibility.

As you can see, things are a mess. If Kentucky gets to 7-5, they could get a good selection that could ultimately land them in Tampa or Las Vegas. But if the Cats fall to 6-6, the bowl destination is not going to be pretty.

Game of the Week: Florida at Vanderbilt

Things would get a lot easier for Kentucky if the Gators would get out of the way. That is only happening if Vanderbilt can record consecutive conference wins.

After the big road win over Kentucky, Clark Lea’s Vandy squad returns to the West End to take on a Florida squad that has defensive issues, but an explosive ground attack should be enough to get a big road win.

Another Vanderbilt win could do wonders for Kentucky on Saturday. We’ll see if the Dores can find enough offense to keep pace with the Gators.

Remaining contenders

To give us a reference point for all of the scenario madness, I’ve done the research and compiled the current records and remaining schedules for the SEC teams that Kentucky will be competing with over the next two weeks for bowl positioning.

Things are going to get pretty crazy.

— Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2): at Arkansas (Nov. 19), vs. Mississippi State (Nov. 24)

— Kentucky (6-4, 3-4): vs. Georgia (Nov. 19), vs. Louisville (Nov. 26)

— Florida (6-4, 3-4): at Vanderbilt (Nov. 19), at Florida State (Nov. 25)

— South Carolina (6-4, 3-4): vs. Tennessee (Nov. 19), at Clemson (Nov. 26)

— Mississippi State (6-4, 3-4): vs. East Tennessee State (Nov. 19), at Ole Miss (Nov. 24)

— Arkansas (5-5, 2-4): vs. Ole Miss (Nov. 19), at Missouri (Nov. 25)

— Auburn (4-6, 2-5): vs. WKU (Nov. 19), at Alabama (Nov. 26)

— Missouri (4-6, 2-5): vs. New Mexico State (Nov. 19), vs. Arkansas (Nov. 25)

Projections Round-Up

Now let’s see what some of the experts think. Here you can find where Kentucky is falling in some of the major bowl projections.

• ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura: Gator Bowl vs. Notre Dame (Dec. 30, 3:30 PM, ESPN, TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL)
• ESPN’s Mark Schlabach: Music City Bowl vs. Minnesota (Dec. 31, Noon, ESPN, Nissan Stadium, Nashville TN)
• Brett McMurphy: ReliaQuest Bowl vs. Iowa (Jan. 2, Noon, ESPN2, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL)
• CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm: Texas Bowl vs. Baylor (Dec. 28, 9:00 PM, ESPN, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX)
• Sporting News’ Bill Bender: ReliaQuest Bowl vs. Purdue (Jan. 2, Noon, ESPN2, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL)

As the projections show, literally anything is on the table at this point. We just have to play the waiting game now to see how things shake out over the next weekends. If I had to guess, the Las Vegas Bowl seems like the most possible outcome at this point. Florida likely grabs ReliaQuest Bowl and the Gator Bowl would not want Kentucky since the last trip made was in 2020. The Music City Bowl is likely not an option due to timing conflicts with the Louisville-Kentucky basketball game.

That leaves us to Las Vegas Bowl vs. Texas Bowl. I think the Las Vegas Bowl would win out if Kentucky gets to 7-5. But things are a mess, and we need to let the cake bake.

Kentucky to-do list

Kentucky finds itself as a big home underdog to No. 1 Georgia on Saturday. That task will be tough. But next week’s contest with Louisville remains a huge game. The Cats can get to a good bowl destination if they can win the Governor’s Cup.

For now, we can watch some other teams in some big spots.

1. Can Vanderbilt help?: Kentucky could use an SEC winning streak from Vanderbilt now. The Dores host Florida on Saturday, and an upset win could help open up possibilities for the Cats.
2. Tennessee takes care of South Carolina: As much as it may pain to admit, Tennessee winning will help Kentucky’s case. The Wildcats desperately need to avoid a tiebreaker situation with South Carolina since the Gamecocks own a head-to-head win over Kentucky.
3. Enjoy some football: At the end of the day, this thing could go in about 100 different directions. Let’s try to enjoy the games in the meantime. We’ll reset and take a look at the scenarios next week.