Bracket Thoughts: Diving into race for final No. 1 seeds

On Tuesday night, Gonzaga knocked off No. 17 Saint Mary’s in Las Vegas to give Mark Few his 18th West Coast Conference Tournament title. The win locked in the No. 1 overall seed for the Bulldogs.

The Zags are 26-3, No. 1 in both NET and KenPom, and have a 10-3 record in Quad 1 games with no bad losses on the resume. That will be enough for Few’s program to hear their name first on Selection Sunday.

Yet, the other No. 1 seed spots are still up for grabs.

This week in Bracket Thoughts, we’ll dive into those final spots and take one final look at the bubble as Championship Week should give us many thrills this weekend as college basketball takes center stage for March Madness.

Kentucky must win out

Baylor enters the weekend at 26-5 with 11 Quad 1 wins and a No. 1 ranking in strength of record. As long as the Bears make it to the Big 12 title game on Saturday evening, Scott Drew’s team should earn another No. 1 seed.

Arizona heads to Las Vegas this weekend with a 28-3 mark and a No. 2 ranking in both NET and KenPom. As long as the Wildcats avoid a Quad 2 loss in the Pac-12 Tournament, Tommy Lloyd’s team will be a No. 1 seed.

That leaves us with three teams — Auburn, Kansas, and Kentucky.

The Jayhawks have 10 Quad 1 wins but are outside of the top-five in both NET and KenPom with a Quad 2 loss. However, there is no way Kansas isn’t a one-seed if Bill Self’s program wins the Big 12 Tournament. Kentucky has no bad losses, is No. 3 in NET, and has an 8-6 Quad 1 record. There is no way John Calipari’s team is not a No. 1 seed. Auburn has no bad losses, an 8-4 Quad 1 record, and is No. 2 in strength of record. An SEC title would assure the Tigers of a No. 1.

Yet, the math doesn’t totally add up.

If things go chalk according to KenPom, Kentucky, Arizona, and Baylor would all be conference champions. In that scenario, the Wildcats would get the final No. 1 seed and would be heading to the Philadelphia region. However, we know things rarely go chalk during March Madness.

For John Calipari’s squad, the Wildcats will need to win out but not everything is in their hands. The biggest thing to cheer for will be for someone other than Kansas to win the Big 12 Tournament because that could give the Jayhawks just enough of a data point edge to beat out Kentucky for a No. 1 seed.

Play-in games

To kickoff the Big Ten Tournament on Thursday, Indiana and Michigan will meet in Indianapolis. Thanks to five Quad 1 wins and a top-10 strength of schedule, the Wolverines should get an at-large bid even with a loss. The same cannot be said for Indiana.

The Hoosiers are 18-12, down to No. 43 in NET, with a 6-11 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2. A loss could just knock them out.

On Friday afternoon, Rutgers will start play in the Big Ten Tournament after receiving a double-bye. The Scarlet Knights have six Quad 1 wins but are down at No. 76 in NET. With a potential Quad 1 matchup against Iowa, a win would secure a bid for Rutgers. A loss could send Steve Pikiell’s program to the NIT.

In the SEC, Florida and Texas A&M will meet in the 8-9 game at Amalie Arena. The winner will move on and get a crack at Auburn. The loser will no longer be considered for an at-large bid. Both the Aggies and Gators won’t be guaranteed a spot with a win but will 100 percent be eliminated with a loss.

That is only a few certain situations. Throughout the weekend, many teams will have a chance to play their way into the Big Dance.

Top 16

We have crunched the numbers after the Gonzaga win on Tuesday night and currently have a top-16. KSR will keep a close eye on this over the weekend as a lot can change. However, Kentucky should be a lock to be a No. 2 seed as the Wildcats could have nothing but Quad 1 games in Tampa.

Now let’s get to the s-curve.

1. Gonzaga (West)
2. Baylor (South)
3. Arizona (Midwest)
4. Auburn (East)
5. Kentucky (South)
6. Kansas (Midwest)
7. Villanova (East)
8. Purdue (West)
9. Duke (Midwest)
10. Texas Tech (West)
11. Wisconsin (East)
12. Providence (South)
13. Tennessee (Midwest)
14. Arkansas (West)
15. UCLA (East)
16. Illinois (South)

Villanova will be an interesting team to watch this weekend. The Wildcats are almost guaranteed a spot in the Philadelphia region if on the 3-line. That would allow Jay Wright’s team to play a regional semifinal and final at home. However, a Big East title would lock Villanova into a 2-seed and that could change the location.

As of now, they get the best of both worlds as a No. 2 seed in Philadelphia, but how teams settle ahead of them could alter things the wrong way for Villanova.

Bubble watch

Who doesn’t love the bubble? Here’s how things currently stand heading into the final weekend before the NCAA Tournament.

Last Four Byes: Creighton, Wyoming, Notre Dame, Wake Forest

Last Four In: Rutgers, Indiana, Miami, Xavier

First Four Out: SMU, North Texas*, VCU, Florida

Next Four Out: Oklahoma, BYU, Dayton, Texas A&M

North Texas is, of course, the favorite to claim the automatic bid for the C-USA. If the Mean Green win that conference tournament, they’ll be taken off this list. Meanwhile, things are bleak for BYU as the Cougars have no games remaining.

Elsewhere, Oklahoma, Florida, Texas A&M, and SMU could all have big opportunities in conference tournaments to record key Quad 1 wins.

March Madness is here.