BTI's Rants and Ramblings: Who has a legit shot at the Final Four?

What does it take to make a Final Four, and does Kentucky have it?  Well, if you go by Ken Pomeroy and his ratings, you must have a Top 50 offense and a Top 30 defense in his rankings.  Over the last 7 Final Fours, no team has not had BOTH and reached the Final Four.  In fact, of the 28 teams listed below, only THREE had an offense that ranked over 30th nationally in efficiency (2010 Butler, 2006 George Mason and LSU).  So, if you really want to pinpoint likely Final Four teams, look for teams in the Top 30 in both.     2010 Duke (Offense: 1, Defense: 4) Butler (Offense: 50, Defense: 5) Michigan State (Offense: 28, Defense: 30) West Virginia  (Offense: 11, Defense: 22) 2009 North Carolina (Offense: 1, Defense: 16) Michigan State (Offense: 20, Defense: 10) Villanova (Offense: 22, Defense: 15) UCONN (Offense: 15, Defense: 3) 2008 Kansas (Offense: 2, Defense: 1) Memphis (Offense: 4, Defense: 4) UCLA (Offense: 7, Defense: 3) North Carolina (Offense: 1, Defense: 19) 2007 Florida (Offense: 1, Defense: 12)  Ohio State (Offense: 4, Defense: 15) UCLA (Offense: 23, Defense: 2) Georgetown (Offense: 2, Defense: 20) 2006 Florida (Offense: 2, Defense: 5) UCLA (Offense: 28, Defense: 3) George Mason (Offense: 49, Defense: 18) LSU (Offense: 50, Defense: 4) 2005 North Carolina (Offense: 1, Defense: 5 Illinois (Offense: 3, Defense: 11) Louisville (Offense: 7, Defense: 14) Michigan State (Offense: 6, Defense: 25) 2004 UCONN (Offense: 4, Defense: 5)  Georgia Tech (Offense: 25, Defense: 3) Duke (Offense: 2, Defense: 4) Oklahoma State (Offense: 5, Defense: 12) So, who fits the category this season?  A total of 9 teams currently have a Top 30 offense and defense.  And look who one of those teams happens to be:  Ohio State (Offense: 1, Defense: 10) Kansas (Offense: 4, Defense: 12) Duke (Offense: 5, Defense: 5) Pittsburgh (Offense: 6, Defense: 21) Kentucky (Offense: 7, Defense: 27) Syracuse (Offense: 17, Defense: 16) Purdue (Offense: 18, Defense: 8 ) Texas (Offense: 19, Defense: 1) San Diego State (Offense: 24, Defense: 3) Who is the biggest lock to make the Final Four, in my opinion?  That would be Pittsburgh, who doesn't have any of the other 8 teams above in its bracket.  And while people would love to say Duke got an easy draw, the numbers don't back that up.  They have Texas and San Diego State in their bracket, and those who think SDSU is an easy draw hasn't seen them play.  They are a LEGIT Final Four contender.  And then there is Kentucky.  They have all the pieces to make a run statistically.  Unfortunately, they also have a very tough draw.  Ohio State is a nightmare matchup and has the numbers to back it up.  But really look out for Syracuse.  They have tournament experience, and solid play both on the wings and the post.  Either way Kentucky is going to need a lot of luck and good play to have any shot in the East.  Just happy they have a shot, something that Pomeroy would say 59 of the 68 teams don't have.