Disastrous week has Kentucky back near Tournament bubble

Following a disastrous week in which Kentucky dropped its midweek game at Western Kentucky and was swept at Mississippi State, the ‘Cats have suddenly found themselves back near the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Kentucky had jumped all the way to a No. 2 seed in most Field of 64 Projections after its best stretch of the season, in which it won six of eight games (including two over No. 4 Tennessee and one over No. 19 Louisville). Since then, the ‘Cats have dropped four games in a row and plummeted 12 spots in the RPI Rankings since April 27 (No. 29 to No. 41). That drop is among one of the biggest among all college baseball teams.

More importantly though, Kentucky has set itself up in a bit of a pickle. The ‘Cats, who will play two ranked opponents in No. 17 Oklahoma and No. 11 Vanderbilt in their final two conference series, will have to go at least 3-3 in those six games to reach the 13 conference win mark.

Just three SEC teams (2006 Mississippi State, 2009 Vanderbilt and 2021 Alabama) with fewer than 13 conference wins have made the NCAA Tournament in the 21st century. All three teams finished with 12 wins in those respective seasons and were all eliminated in Regional play.

It was a pitiful week offensively for the Kentucky offense, as they hit for a .210 average over the four-game span and were outscored 32-14. The ‘Cats also stranded an average of 8.25 runners on base and were a combined 5-35 with runners in scoring position. Not quite the play of an NCAA Tournament caliber team.

In past seasons, it seemed as if their starting lineup had been figured out by the first or second conference series of the season. This year however, new lineups are still being concocted and constructed down the final stretch and that could be severely limiting the offense. Kentucky’s .274 team batting average ranks 172nd in the NCAA.

Kentucky’s pitching disappointed in a major way as well, as it had actually cemented itself as one of the best staffs in the SEC prior to this week. In 32 1/3 innings, Wildcat pitchers boasted a combined 8.35 ERA and allowed a season-high 14 earned runs in its Saturday run-rule loss to Mississippi State.

They could have potentially been in a good spot to sneak into the NCAA Tournament with 13 or even 12 losses, but midweek losses to Lipscomb, Murray State and Xavier will come back to bite them in a major way. Due to the weaker non-conference schedule, it seems like Kentucky may even have to go 4-2 to reach the 14 win mark to be a lock in the NCAA Tournament.