ESPN Power Ratings Predict Final Four Kentucky Football Games

Despite the devastating loss to Tennessee, the Wildcats still have a path to an 8-win regular season. A simple scan of the opponents’ logos shows an unobstructed path to eight Kentucky football wins, but the numbers tell a slightly different story.

Winning Percentage, Projected Spread for Final Four Kentucky Football Games

The four-letter network has a few different power ratings to predict college football games. ESPN’s FPI assigns winning percentages for each team. It is not as bullish on Kentucky as ESPN’s SP+ ratings. The forward-thinking power rating created by Bill Connelly can be used to project spreads, baking in 2.5 points for home-field advantage.

Opponent	FPI UK Winning %	SP+ Spread
At Missouri	50.8	UK -4
Vanderbilt	87.6	UK -24.5
Georgia	9.3	UGA -22
Louisville	50.6	UK -1.5

What Does This Mean?

Kentucky finishes the season with three of its final four games at Kroger Field. The Wildcats are slight favorites in a pair of 50-50 games, including a rivalry game on Senior Day. Despite success in the past against these programs, they’re called 50-50 games for a reason. If Kentucky splits Louisville and Missouri, or worse, the season will feel like a failure for most Kentucky football fans.

August is for arguing. September is for dreaming. October is for bargaining. November is for everything. How Kentucky finishes the 2022 season in the month of November will define the way Wildcat fans feel about their football program after a decade with Mark Stoops.