Is it Final Four or Bust for Kentucky? (BTI's Rants and Ramblings)

It feels so good to watch a Kentucky basketball team that, game in and game out, brings an exciting, winning product on the floor. Even before Big Z’s historic performance on Saturday, this has been the most exciting UK team since at least 2017, if not 2015. And, if we face actual reality, this is the first team that has been a clear national title contender in seven years.

But that span of time also is going to add some extra pressure for this squad to perform in March. I hope everybody is appreciating and enjoying this regular season but the reality is it won’t matter all that much without a strong run in March.

So the question is: how far is far enough?

SEC TOURNAMENT

I know that this has been Drew Franklin’s crusade for many years now but consider me a soldier in his army. Kentucky’s performance in the SEC Tournament since 2020 has been downright pathetic. A 1-3 record overall. Kentucky hasn’t won an SEC Tournament since 2018 or even made a final since that year.

Other fanbases might think focusing on a conference tournament is silly but at Kentucky, success in that event is a key cornerstone of our program. Dominance in the SEC is proven at that event and lately UK has shown they are no longer dominant in this league. This team looks like it could prove differently. I would say a return trip to the finals of that event is a must. The league looks like a three-team race this year so the league doesn’t seem deep at the top. So I see no excuse to not expect a run to the finals, if not a championship in 2024.

NCAA TOURNAMENT

I understand the NCAA Tournament is one of the most random sporting events. In John Calipari’s tenure, there have been all kinds of randomness that have defined his career, both good and bad:

• 2010: What if UK doesn’t shoot 4-32 from three and misses 13 free throws in the Elite 8?
• 2011: What if Brandon Knight doesn’t hit a game-winning shot against Princeton in the first round?
• 2014: What if Aaron Harrison doesn’t hit any of his game-winning shots?
• 2015: What if the shot clock violation is called against Wisconsin?
• 2017: What if Drake Maye doesn’t hit a last-second shot?
• 2018: What if PJ Washington doesn’t miss 12 free throws?
• 2019: Losing to Auburn after beating them twice in the regular season

All kinds of things that were random and could have easily gone in different directions. With that said, this team is far too talented to cite “randomness” if they lose in the first week of the tournament. At a very bare minimum, this team has to win its first two NCAA Tournament games. There will not be a team in the 6-12 seed line that should scare the Cats. There can be no excuses this year for not making it to the second weekend.

WHAT ABOUT THE FINAL FOUR?

In the first six years of the Calipari era, making the Final Four happened almost at ease for the Cats. Four of them in total. The teams in 2017 and 2019 were “Final Four-caliber” teams that fell short. But coming off the heels of those first six years, you could easily believe that the next Final Four was coming. We are now nine years removed from that last Final Four though. And fans have had to watch, at best, inconsistent results for the past three seasons. And obviously, the NCAA Tournament results have been highly disappointing. Which is why I don’t know if a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 berth will satisfy the fanbase as a whole.

Additionally, should the Cats lose at any point during the NCAA Tournament, the “who” and “how” will matter greatly this season. First off, the Cats just cannot be upset in the tournament. No more losing to 8-seed Kansas State, 4-seed Auburn, or 15-seed St.Peters. If the Cats are to lose, they have to lose to a high-quality opponent or people will just revert right back to where they were before the year. The “how” is big too. Kentucky just can’t have a lineup controversy at the end of this year. We can’t be left wondering why this player was on the floor or why that player was on the bench at the end of a loss. This tournament will be Calipari’s most important in terms of his future with this fanbase.

IT’S NOW OR NEVER

I will never say that a season is a failure if a team doesn’t make a Final Four. Even John Calipari’s best team, the 38-1 squad in 2015, almost lost in the Elite 8. Notre Dame had a shot at the buzzer to win that game, if you forgot.

Kentucky will play a close game or two to get to a Final Four; that is almost a certainty. So, saying they have to win those or the season is a bust is an almost unfair expectation. But, Kentucky has to handle every opponent worse than them and must compete with the best teams in this country. If this squad can’t do it, then I don’t know how it will happen again. All of the pieces are there and the addition of Big Z gives them more depth in the one place they need it. There certainly are no excuses about the roster.

I don’t think we will have to bend our brains too hard to find a path to the Final Four. To me, it’s now or never to plant this program back among the college basketball elite. Is it Final Four or bust? I don’t think so. But I do think it’s Final Four-Threaten or Bust.