Georgia is national title contender again but struggles to cover big spreads

by: Adam Luckett6 hours agoadamluckettksr

Georgia mascot Uga XI on the field during the second half of the SEC championship game against Texas in Atlanta, on Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024. (© Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Kirby Smart has built one of the best college football programs in college football at his alma mater. The Bulldogs have won two national titles, three SEC titles, and have made four College Football Playoff appearance. The Dawgs are on the mountain but they haven’t gotten there by covering big numbers recently.

Since taking home consecutive national titles in 2021 and 2022, Georgia has struggled to cover spreads. These betting lines have gotten inflated due to UGA’s dominance and that has led to a 9-22-1 against the spread (ATS) record since the beginning of the 2023 season. Smart’s team typically fails to cover the number.

That poor cover percentage really shows up when UGA is a 20-point favorite or more. Georgia is now 0-15-1 ATS since 2022 in the regular season as a big favorite since beating Vanderbilt 55-0 as a 38-point favorite in October 2022, this program has produced quite the cover drought. The Bulldogs always win these games but have found themselves in close games in the fourth quarter. This streak started with a game against Kentucky.

Game Date	Spread	Result	Record
10/29/2022	No. 1 Georgia (-23) vs. Florida	Bulldogs 42, Gators 20	1-0 (0-1 ATS)
11/19/2022	No. 1 Georgia (-22) at Kentucky	Bulldogs 16, Wildcats 6	2-0 (0-2 ATS)
11/26/2022	No. 1 Georgia (-36) at Georgia Tech	Bulldogs 37, Jackets 14	3-0 (0-3 ATS)
9/2/2023	No. 1 Georgia (-50) vs. UT Martin	Bulldogs 48, Skyhawks 7	4-0 (0-4 ATS)
9/9/2023	No. 1 Georgia (-42) vs. Ball State	Bulldogs 45, Cardinals 3	5-0 (0-4-1 ATS)
9/16/2023	No. 1 Georgia (-27) vs. South Carolina	Bulldogs 24, Gamecocks 14	6-0 (0-5-1 ATS)
9/23/2023	No. 1 Georgia (-40) vs. UAB	Bulldogs 49, Blazers 21	7-0 (0-6-1 ATS)
10/14/2023	No. 1 Georgia (-32) at Vanderbilt	Bulldogs 37, Commodores 20	8-0 (0-7-1 ATS)
11/25/2023	No. 1 Georgia (-24) at Georgia Tech	Bulldogs 31, Jackets 23	9-0 (0-8-1 ATS)
9/7/2024	No. 1 Georgia (-52) vs. Tennessee Tech	Bulldogs 48, Golden Eagles 3	10-0 (0-9-1 ATS)
9/14/2024	No. 1 Georgia (-22) at Kentucky	Bulldogs 13, Wildcats 12	11-0 (0-10-1 ATS)
10/5/2024	No. 5 Georgia (-21) vs. Auburn	Bulldogs 31, Tigers 13	12-0 (0-11-1 ATS)
10/12/2024	No. 5 Georgia (-33) vs. Mississippi State	UGA 41, State 31	13-0 (0-12-1 ATS)
11/23/2024	No. 8 Georgia (-42) vs. UMass	Bulldogs 59, Minutemen 21	14-0 (0-13-1 ATS)
8/30/2025	No. 5 Georgia (-38.5) vs. Marshall	Bulldogs 45, Herd 7	15-0 (0-14-1 ATS)
9/6/2025	No. 4 Georgia (-46.5) vs. Austin Peay	Bulldogs 28, Governors 6	16-0 (0-15-1 ATS)

Georgia Tech took Georgia to overtime last season as a 17-point road underdog. Kentucky had Georgia on the ropes in 13-12 loss last season as a 22-point home underdog. South Carolina led 14-3 at halftime as a 27-point road underdog in 2023 before things game unglued in the second half. This is a spot where the Bulldogs do not play well.

Get the Daily On3 Newsletter in your inbox every morning

By clicking "Subscribe to Newsletter", I agree to On3's Privacy Notice, Terms, and use of my personal information described therein.

In power conference games during this stretch, Georgia is 0-9 ATS with the margin of victory falling 13.4 points shy of the spread on average. Not only are the Bulldogs failing to cover these spreads, they are failing to meet pregame expectations by nearly two touchdowns. UGA failed to score enough total points to match the spread three times. Two of those games occurred against Kentucky.

Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings of this series with covers as a 20-plus point underdog in 2019, 2021, and 2024. Are the Cats a live dog again at Sanford Stadium? Georgia is currently a 20.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5 at BetMGM.