Handicapping The Most Likely Power Conference Win(s) for Kentucky

It’s been more than a year since we’ve watched Kentucky win a game against a Power Conference opponent, and even longer since we’ve seen them win one at home. That means they’re due, right?

With seven games remaining, six against Power Conference foes, Mark Stoops‘ job depends on his ability to win a game or two against a comparable opponent. Who will it be? Let’s break down a few of the top options and explain why.

Kentucky Usually Wins a Game it Shouldn’t

During his conversation with Andy and Ari, Matt Jones pointed out that Stoops has a knack for winning games that nobody expects. That’s not just anecdotal evidence.

2018 — Kentucky snapped The Streak on the road against a Florida team that went 10-3 and won the Sugar Bowl.

2019 — Kentucky was a double-digit underdog against Missouri early in the Bowden Ball era. The Cats won 29-7.

2020 — Tennessee was a 6.5-point favorite and the Wildcats Pick-Sixed their way to a 34-7 win at Neyland.

2021 — In the preseason, the three-game homestand against Florida, LSU, and Tennessee looked daunting. The Cats took two out of three, rushing the field after the Florida win and manhandling LSU at home.

2022 — People forget that Louisville was a 3.5-point favorite when Kentucky ended the season with a 26-14 win. Will Levis had two touchdown passes in his final game as a Cat.

2023 — Louisville was a Top 10 team on its way to the ACC Championship Game when Ray Davis had three touchdowns in a 38-31 win.

2024 — Kentucky upset Ole Miss on the road, a game that would eventually serve as the reason why the Rebels didn’t make the CFP.

Two Easy Choices

A common foe was mentioned above: Louisville. One of Mark Stoops’ greatest successes at Kentucky is consistently winning the Governor’s Cup, even when things look bleak, particularly at the end of that 2023 season, when things seemed to be spiraling.

Louisville has two excellent running backs, but they have become one-dimensional thanks to a bad offensive line. Kentucky’s defensive line can force Miller Moss into making enough mistakes for the Cats to capitalize and potentially end the season with a rivalry win.

Even though Kentucky has lost consecutive home games to Vanderbilt, the Commodores play a style that should keep this one close. Diego Pavia has made them a darling in the SEC, but they’re 5-0 start ended with a loss at Alabama. After a bye week, they play LSU, Missouri, at Texas, and Auburn. That difficult stretch could gut the Commodores before Kentucky comes to town.

Will Kentucky Win a Home Game?

Kentucky has not defeated a Power Conference foe at home since Sept. 30, 2023. Even if Stoops beats both Vandy and Florida, he needs to let Kentucky fans leave Kroger Field happy for the first time in two years.

History tells us that won’t happen against Tennessee, but Stoops has had Florida’s number. The issue is that Florida has an incredibly explosive offense. DJ Lagway‘s health is inconsistent at best, but the Gators can quickly turn a game upside down in 3-4 plays.

Surprisingly, Texas might be Kentucky’s best shot at winning a home game against a Power Conference opponent. The schedule has not given Arch Manning a chance to get comfortable and confident with a win at home. A loss in Red River this weekend could drop them to 3-3. Texas has issues on its offensive line, and Kentucky could send the Horns into a full-blown spiral… or Kentucky could be the perfect get-right game for the Horns.

There’s no easy and obvious answer to this question that we tackled during Wednesday’s 11 Personnel.