Here Come the Commodores!

The fellas from Vandy Sports Radio preview the big game.   Call me a Negative Nelly if you will, but I am going to go out on a limb and predict that Saturday's Kentucky-Vanderbilt football match-up will generate less than the colossal 2.6 television share that Tuesday's Kentucky-Michigan State basketball game drew.  Truthfully, aside from selected members of the two fan bases and certain degenerate gamblers, I can't imagine that many eyeballs will be tuned in to view the titanic struggle taking place at Dudley Field this Saturday morning.  Yet despite any national appeal, the game remains an important one to both programs.  In life, we often measure ourselves against people of roughly equivalent abilities.  As a lawyer, for example, I don't compare myself to the greats like Perry Mason, Johnny Cochran or the Eric C. Conn (who learned Spanish from a tape), but rather legal folk residing in my general pay grade.  In a similar manner, football programs of comparable ilk measure themselves against one another.  LSU expects to compete with Alabama and vice versa.  It is telling, then, that in Kentucky's football history, the most important game of the season is often the November battle with Vanderbilt.   Despite what Kentucky fans may perceive as historical superiority to the Commodores, the series is remarkably competitive. Kentucky leads the all time series by a single game: 41-40-4.  If the odds-makers are correct, the series will be all even after Saturday.  (I'm personally considering a small wager on the game ending in a tie for the fifth time.  I think we're due.)  In addition to typically being competitive, the game is traditionally crucial to the Cats in finding a way to navigate a rugged schedule to attain bowl eligibility.  At the height of the Rich Brooks era, Kentucky's success against Vanderbilt played a large role in reaching bowl status on four consecutive occasions.  Brooks went 5-2 against Vandy in his career, winning 5 of his last 6.   Just as wins against Vandy are a good indicator of overall success at Kentucky, losses to Vanderbilt can have devastating repercussions.  Bill Curry inexplicably lost 5 straight to the Commodores from 1991 to 1995.  There is no question this futility led in part to his firing. More recently, Joker Phillips not only lost 2 of his 3 match ups with Vandy, but was dominated by the 'Dores by a combined 78-8 in his last two.  The 2012 game, a 40 to 0 white-washing played in front of an empty Commonwealth Stadium, was such an unmitigated disaster that it led to his firing one day later.  The moral of the story seems pretty apparent.  The Kentucky- Vanderbilt game is a 50-50 proposition historically. Kentucky coaches that experience success in Lexington, such as it is, tend to beat the 'Dores more often than not.  Those who do not better polish up the resume.   So what are Mark Stoops' chances in his first run at this important rivalry?  On the surface, his chances don't look very good. Vanderbilt is at high tide historically with James Franklin at the helm.  Franklin has borrowed a tried and true model of SEC coaching success: act like an arrogant jerk and recruit at least a handful of sexual offenders. Utilizing this strategy, Franklin is on the verge of leading the Commodores to another bowl game, with 8 wins looking very realistic.  Included in this win total are victories over traditional powers Georgia and Florida.  None of this sounds overly promising for the 2-7 Cats, who are seeking their first conference win in nearly two calendar years.  However, this Vanderbilt team is beatable.  They rank last in the conference in rushing offense, have given up more sacks than any other conference team, have the worst return game in the SEC, and are middle of the pack at best in most other measurables.  Even their win over the mighty Gators is somewhat misleading.  Florida actually outgained the Commodores 344 to 183, but suffered four turnovers to none for Vandy.  All of this is simply to say that although Vanderbilt is the better team at this point, they do not have the talent to simply overwhelm the Cats if Kentucky comes to play.  If the Cats play well, the game should at least enter the fourth quarter with the outcome still in doubt, something that could not be said after the first quarter of the last two Vandy games.   Still, as we have mentioned in other games this season, James Franklin has a few year head start on Mark Stoops in building his program.  If Vanderbilt should beat Stoops in his first game against the 'Dores, it should not lead to the conclusion that Stoops will not be successful in the series as a whole.  Rich Brooks lost his first before winning the next 5 in the series.  But ultimately, for the Cats to have success under Stoops, he must swing this rivalry back in favor of the Cats.   A good start would be to make Saturday competitive, something the former staff failed to accomplish in the last two meetings between these two SEC rivals.