Hypothetical: If we go 4-8, do we keep coach Stoops?

As Football wraps up its second scrimmage of the summer, the positive news cycle is sure to keep churning, and for good reason. The offense should be much stronger than that of seasons’ past, and the secondary will hopefully be able to make up for defensive deficiencies up front. Because of these bright spots most people believe that, whether or not we see an improvement on our 5-7 record, coach Stoops will return to coach at least another year.

But what if our record worsens to 4-8?

IF we drop our season opener against Southern Mississippi, which is a big but not altogether improbable “if,” then 4-8 might be the most likely scenario. Don’t believe me, ask Jared Lorenzen, who has predicted a 4-8 record for the season. We will beat Austin Peay and New Mexico State, and we’ll also likely add a couple SEC wins, say against Vandy and South Carolina, but from a team deflated by a loss to a C-USA for iits home opener, I’m not sure we can expect much else. At that point (and I’m not saying this is going to happen, just posing a hypothetical) it’s safe to say that we’d be hearing a lot of scuttlebutt about coach Stoops being asked to leave the program. And with news coming out yesterday that season ticket sales are down 14 percent from last year’s numbers, the outlook for next year would be grim. If you'd call this season a "drop," then next year (in a 4-8 scenario) would be a downright sky-dive. With that kind of monetary pressure and the inevitable call for a coaching change from the fanbase, nobody could blame Mitch Barnhart if he decided to move in another direction. But letting Stoops go, even if we drop eight games, would be the wrong move. We’d take hits in a lot of areas (namely ticket sales and fan morale, not to mention the recruiting trail) but dropping Stoops and his staff would not be worth the uncertainty and risk that comes with seeking another option at HC. If we looked elsewhere for a head coach, we’d likely be giving up most if not all the other coaching talent we’ve got. That would mean saying goodbye to proven recruiting czar Vince Marrow, new OC/QB coach duo Eddie Gran & Darin Hinshaw, sparkplug recruiter/hypeman Lamar Thomas, and capable defensive coordinator D.J. Elliot. We might also lose some current players to other schools. Remember, all of the players at that point would have committed to UK under the Stoops regime, and many would at least consider jumping ship. Personnel-wise, things will be looking up for the 2017 season on both sides of the ball. According to the latest depth chart from July, we’ll be losing just three offensive starters in center Jon Toth (who I’ll admit is extremely important), Ryan Timmons, and fullback Will Collins, who I’m barely counting as a starter because we usually don’t feature the fullback much. And attrition won’t be any worse defensively, either. Losing Darius West for the season hurt us, and because of that injury senior safety Marcus McWilson may find himself in a starting position at season’s start. However, even if you count McWilson as a starter, the defense will lose just three first-stringers to graduation, including DE Courtney Miggins and DB Blake McClain. Even if we underperform dramatically this season, next season will be unequivocally better from a personnel standpoint. Many fans would groan. I would cry. Ryan Lemond would completely wipe all UK football related information from his brain. But, even in the worst of all possible season outcomes, keeping coach Stoops makes a whole lotta sense. Legendary Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer posted losing records in four of his first six seasons at VT, including his fifth and sixth, and then went on to build a perennial contender at a non-powerhouse school in a competitive conference. That’s the goal here in Lexington, and I believe putting a premium on consistency is our key to getting there. Oh, and paying someone around $11 million to leave hardly ever makes sense. Your thoughts?